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With a Rt, the speed index of contagion, slightly lower than the legendary “fee 1”, as of Monday Lazio should be back in the band Orange allowing the reopening of shopping centers and clothing stores. But above all, if the orange is confirmed, the Region will sign an ordinance to reopen kindergartens and primary and secondary schools throughout the Region. High schools will also be closed in the week before Easter and will reopen only after the holidays, data permitting. In the event of the high school reopening, the Lazio region will give students the opportunity to perform quick bulk swabs at no charge.
The Lombardy instead, according to leaked evaluations of the same Region, Monday should remain in rosso, a band in which the Aosta Valley will arrive today by its own decision before a rebound in infections in some towns that makes the RT go back to an altitude of 1.75. Finally, they seem balanced between orange and red. Veneto, Tuscany me Calabria that have data very close to the limit of the average of 250 weekly infections per 100,000 inhabitants. Everything will depend on the assessments of the control room that will meet today, as every Friday, to verify the progress of the pandemic region by region based on the famous 21 parameters that have been with us for many months.
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Piedmont and Campania red zone until Easter, Veneto in balance
Micro oscillations
The most important parameter, the RT, fluctuates for many Regions on the border between the “red zone” and the “orange zone” and, therefore, much will depend on the level of occupancy of intensive care beds (and Lombardy has a participation of more than 50%) and the evaluation of the response capacity of local health systems.
However, it is known – confirmed Professor Roberto Battiston from the University of Trento – that the national RT fluctuates around “quota 1” even if infections do not show signs of decline and in some provinces, such as Brescia and Marche , hospitals are at the limit of their capacities.
The wait in the Regions is strong but not spasmodic because it is already known that at Easter all of Italy will return to the red. «The projection we have is of a Rt in the limits of the orange zone and we still have an incidence of around 250 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants. The law establishes that these parameters must fall below the threshold to change the area, we are waiting for the attribution of the parameters ”, explained yesterday the president of Veneto Luca Zaia. “We are 248 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants and we have a Rt of 1.09-1.10, so we must stay in the orange zone,” Tuscan President Eugenio Giani told Radio24 yesterday morning. The Calabrian data is also under careful observation.
It only remains to wait for the ordinance of the Minister of Health, Roberto Speranza, which will be signed today and will take effect on Monday. As mentioned, next week’s range “promotions” or “recessions” have quite limited effects because from April 3-5 all of Italy will be back in the red to minimize travel during the Easter holidays. In the orange areas, after all, the bars and restaurants remain closed and perhaps the most awaited opening by those who have returned from the “red” is that of hairdressers and beauty centers.
In reality, the attention of public opinion shifts towards the post-Easter period and the month of April. The month vaccines should finally take off, hitting 500,000 a day in the transition week to May.
The current regulations have been established in a decree law that has a valid term until April 7 and therefore the mandatory question is clear: what will happen next? The government is willing to try to open primary schools if the pandemic data allows it. The measurement should also take place in the red band regions.
But at the moment it is more of a suggestion than a real project. Both in the Executive and among the members of the Scientific Technical Committee there is a strong “rigorist party” that would prefer to focus on a last effort to keep infections as low as possible given the explosion of the vaccination campaign that is expected from then on . April 20, when the single-dose vials of Johnson & Johnson vaccine should also arrive in Italy.
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