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by Ivano Porfiri
An increasing number of cases, with the Rt (infection transmission index) of 1.44 (1.53 if calculated in 15 days), but especially the high impact on the health system from intensive care to reach to sprouts. in Rsa and among health personnel. These are the reasons that led to the risk classification of Umbria from Moderate to High with the consequent color change from yellow to orange. This can be verified in the report of the control room (where the director of health of Umbria, Claudio Dario, is among the three representatives of the Regions) number 25 relative to the period from October 26 to November 1, announced the Monday night.
UMBRIA ORANGE: WHAT CHANGES
The numbers In that week Umbria registered 3,211 cases with an incidence of 364.77 per 100 thousand inhabitants, which becomes 674.44 extended to 14 days (behind only the Aosta Valley, Lombardy, Bolzano Province and Liguria). Extended to 15 days (October 15-28), the RT is 1.53 (1.72 the national average). Cases are on the rise, while outbreaks are declining, but this could also be due to tracking difficulties. The scenario always remains at level 3, while the assessment on the probability of diffusion is classified as “Moderate”.
BASSETTI’S CONDITIONS GOT DOWN
Health system alarm The real alarm for Umbria, which has led to raising the classification from yellow to orange, is the evaluation of the impact on the health system: High due to “overload in intensive care and evidence of a new outbreak in Rsa / nursing homes / hospitals “. Specifically, the occupation of intensive care positions by Covid patients is reported at 40% (but we are already well above the data from the last days), while in medical departments at 39.6 %, both with a high probability (more than 50%) of a high risk escalation in the next 30 days.
THE BULLETIN: 9 DEAD, 314 INFECTIONS
Too many positives in tampons In the part of the indicators on the capacity for diagnostic evaluation, investigation and contact management, an alert of exceeding the threshold of 30% of positives in swabs is reported (excluding those of screening and re-testing of the same subjects). In the reference week, the average was 31.2% compared to 20.2% in the previous week. In the parameters, on the other hand, the personnel dedicated to screening and tracking activities. Very high 7,876 out of 8,291 in October, equivalent to 95%, the declared number of confirmed cases of infection in the region for which a regular epidemiological investigation was carried out with a search for close contacts / total new confirmed cases of infection.
IN PERUGIA HOSPITAL CAMPO
Improving data quality Finally, on the monitoring capacity, an aspect that has caused much discussion in recent days in some regions, the opinion on Umbria is generally good or in any case it is improving with regard to the notification of symptomatic cases to the system of vigilance.
Very serious situation Extending the look to all of Italy, the report confirms that the epidemic is “worsening rapidly” with a situation that is mostly compatible with a type 3 scenario but in which the number of Regions in which the speed of transmission is already compatible with scenario 4. “It is verified, therefore, – states the summary – a very serious generalized and generalized situation throughout the national territory with criticalities already evident in numerous regions and autonomous provinces”. Therefore, all Regions are classified as “high risk of an uncontrolled and unmanageable epidemic” or “moderate risk with a high probability of progressing to high risk in the coming weeks”.
Drastic reduction in physical contact The situation described in the report highlights “the strong criticism of the local services and the current or imminent achievement of the critical thresholds of occupation of the hospital services in all the Regions”. Furthermore, “with the rapid growth of incidence, the impossibility of monitoring all transmission chains and the rapid increase in the burden on healthcare services is becoming more and more frequent.” For the control room, therefore, “it is essential to strengthen mitigation measures in all Regions.” «It is necessary – it is emphasized – a drastic reduction of physical interactions between people to alleviate the pressure on health services. It is essential that the population avoid all opportunities of contact with people outside their home that are not strictly necessary and that they stay at home as long as possible ”.
