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“We are determined to make the best use of EU resources, which means not wasting them on a thousand micro-project flows, but only on projects with a significant impact, on coordinated and coherent guidelines,” the Minister of Finance immediately begins, Roberto Gualtieri, who completed the works of the Forum La Casa Europea Ambrosetti Cernobbio. It is a response to the concerns of the President of the Republic Sergio Mattarella, who on Saturday warned about the risk of generating unnecessary debt in the next generations. In fact, Gualtieri adds that the government will not create “delinquencies”: the composition of the projects will be virtuous and, combined with the structural reforms, will also have an impact on the growth of debt, he says. Because the goal is not to repair the things that have gone wrong so far, but to look to the future and make Italy stronger, more digital, also thanks to the unique, more sustainable and more supportive network.
Recovery Fund is a “unique opportunity” for Italy
The Recovery Fund is “a unique opportunity that the country must take advantage of to get out of this crisis, but also to put Italy back on the path of growth”, says the minister. “We have been affected by a very strong pandemic that affected us first, but we look to the future with confidence. Italy has reacted well to the crisis, citizens, health professionals, companies and even the government. A widely shared perception ”. But also because “this time Europe was really up to the challenge.” The evident interdependence of this clash required solidarity and full shared sovereignty. And this has given a “boost to a nascent European society”. Thanks to the clairvoyance of many countries, such as France and Germany, but also thanks to the political role of this government, which “turned one year old” on Saturday, recalls Gualtieri. “They are historic elections, which would be difficult to underestimate, as Mattarella also mentioned.”
“Unprecedented” GDP drop, but less worse than expected
It certainly does not mean avoiding the harshness of the crisis. This year, the fall in GDP will be “unprecedented,” says Gualtieri. Invitable if 50% of the economy is closed for two months and if international interdependence is taken into account. “All this explains why there will be a significant impact on GDP, especially in the second quarter, with -12.8%. But based on a number of indicators, we estimate that the third quarter rebound will be greater than the -9.5% of Def’s forecast. And the annual contraction in GDP may not be far from what was expected in April. I cannot give a precise figure. But at the moment it is well below what many forecasters estimate and it is not double digits.He claims. Specifying that the estimate “incorporates a degree of caution necessary for the fourth quarter.” In short, the forecast is “positive but cautious”, because “we are aware of the risks of recovery, contagion, climatic factors and other variables also linked to external demand”, but already incorporated into the government’s forecast.
The minister hopes that “normalcy will return in the course of 2021 and the economy will reopen.” A resilience of the economy mainly due to the effectiveness of the containment action and the ability to restart, but also to the “very strong fiscal stimulus” of the government that together with the European institutions has decided to implement. We are talking about 6% of GDP, a necessary condition for the production system to function again ”.
The reforms and the Recovery Plan money
Gualtieri recalled “the increasing selectivity” of the interventions, to accompany the recovery of the economy until the resources of the Recovery Plan come into play. «We are working fast and well: soon it means not waiting for the April deadline, but being able from day one, with the publication in the Official Gazette for the official presentation of the projects. But to have the essential lines of the plans from October to finalize the composition of the plan.
Gualtieri: Italy will be a better country
Our commitment – Gualtieri stressed – is not to return Italy to how it was before the crisis, because it was not strong, fair and safe enough, but to find ourselves in a better country, in which Italians can recognize themselves with more confidence and security. value. And this requires a collective and choral effort. Our plan will have coherence, but also a strong action of listening in these weeks in which we will arrive at the definition of projects, of intense confrontation with the economic, productive, social and cultural world. We must all work together.
The government reform plan
The objective of the government’s recovery plan is to “precisely identify the structural weaknesses” that for many years have made Italy return to Europe, explains the minister, which translates into low productivity gains, low growth rate Italy’s potential, a low ratio between fixed investments and GDP, lower public investments than European partners, lower investments in R&D, low fertility rate, undercapitalization of companies, increase in public debt. That is why the intention is to modulate the Plan to “modify these variables in a structural way, to affect them with an eye not only to problems and accumulations, but also to the future.” And he emphasizes: «We not only want to fix things that did not work well, but also to think about the future: digital and ecological transition, development quality, Social inclusionThey are also the 3 main guidelines of the French plan.
Innovation, digitization, infrastructure, environment
The list is long, but the focus, says Gualtieri, will be on “innovation, digitization, infrastructure, gradual decarbonization of the economy, education, health, research, tax training, work.” The basic vision is “to significantly raise the investment rate of the economy and make it more sustainable, with higher growth rates than in the past, but also more resistant to new shocks.”
The Nadef and the reforms
the Nadef (the update note of the economy and finance document) at the end of the month – anticipates the minister – will indicate the aggregate composition and temporal articulation of the reforms within the framework of a medium-term budgetary strategy, which will also indicate ‘a path significant decrease in debt / GDP ratio“Among the most outstanding aspects of the plan, the minister points out the strengthening and extension of the transition toindustry 4.0, a strong development of digital infrastructures, now also thanks to the positive outlook of having one unique, neutral and open to the entire network».
From the circular economy to kindergartens and tax authorities
Also on the list arecircular economy and the strengthening of social infrastructure, which includes Nursing schools, territorial assistance, not only in terms of social cohesion but also to influence the supply and demand of female work. Without forgetting the Tax collector.
Tax reform: more money for the middle class
«The Recovery Plan gives us the conditions, including a fiscal space, to put one into full operation reform that we also hope will be ambitious and provide simplicity of the tax system and reduction of the tax burdenespecially for middle and lower middle income. Structurally, the reform will be financed by the fight against tax evasion and with the reform of the deductions of environmental taxation ”, assesses Gualtieri.
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