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For Nicola Zingaretti these are the most difficult days since August 2019. There, with the fall of the first Earl, the Democratic Party secretary reluctantly resigned from the early voting line to embark the Democratic Party in a difficult governing alliance with the M5S. This time, the second Earl in the balance, is about freeing his party from the effects of a crisis that is in fact already open. According to Zingaretti, the big difference with 2019 could be the after: a year and a half ago the Democratic Party would have had to face the elections alone, and it was one of the reasons that it abandoned the option to vote, this time it could do it together with the M5S .
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Scenarios, hypotheses, bets. No one is sure of the result of the verification. In these hours all the leaders are busy prefiguring their own movements and those of others, adjusting them according to all the variables. Zingaretti faces the phase with a low profile: few statements, targeted messages, a lot of concern. There is a double concrete risk to avoid: that the Democratic Party seems subservient to Renzi’s action against Conte, or worse, a hidden president; but also prevent him from becoming a defender of the status quo. Because at this point Zingaretti is determined and has not hidden his thoughts from any of the interlocutors: the government is paralyzed, the program is languishing, so we cannot continue like this. Democrats hope Conte will have the courage and willingness to come up with the most advanced mediations to untie too many strong dossiers (Mes, EU funds, economic and institutional reforms) and also to strengthen a government team with too many struggling ministers. But optimism cannot be said to prevail at the moment.
Seen by the Nazarene, the fixed points are these: Matteo Renzi’s is not a hoax; If Conte does not find a formula to unblock the impasse, Renzi will open the crisis; He will do so because the political project of Italy Alive has technically failed (the plaque was 4 percent to the Tuscan regional authorities) and he is no longer interested in keeping alive the government formula that he himself promoted last summer; if that happens, the Democratic Party has no intention of participating in the technical formulas of governance or of the so-called national units.
In this, the difference with Renzi is clear, even if not everyone in the Democratic Party thinks like the secretary. Which, instead, makes it a decisive question and not a tactical threat. Zingaretti explained it to one of his managers this way: I find it curious that many of those who dispute the unnatural nature of government with the M5S are the same ones who now propose to make one with Salvini and Meloni. Zingaretti says: not in my name, not in my name.
These are the intentions. Then there is reality, with its not entirely predictable developments. Renzi, for example, says he is sure that once Conte falls, a new executive will always be born: too many ongoing emergencies, Covid, the Recovery Plan to be defined, and too many political forces terrified of returning to the vote, starting with M5S and Forza Italia, which would decimate the parliamentary troops. But here, precisely, is Zingaretti’s conviction that the prospect of an electoral agreement between dem and grillini is the big news. Objection: could the M5S politically support such an agreement without falling apart? Without Di Battista and others approaching the split? Counter-objection: could the M5S support a technical government with Berlusconi, Salvini and Renzi’s own fresco, a veteran of the trip to Conte? Or go to vote alone and risk losing 100 percent of single-member constituencies?
Questions without accurate answers, because in this legislature the M5S, like and more than the other political forces, including the Pd, has shown a great lack of scruples. Therefore, nothing can be excluded. It must also be considered that the relations between Conte and Di Maio, cold for some time, authorize not to take the decisions of the Chancellor for granted. In the Movement it continues to have primacy even without the degrees of political leader.
“I’ll wait for you with my arms crossed” is the summary that Zingaretti gave to a teammate from the match. Understood: if Conte contributes to the tipping point, we move forward with conviction. Otherwise, you have to try to beat Salvini and Meloni in the polls. Without trying to make a government together first.
