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The economic crisis caused by the coronavirus emergency hit the Italian economic system with the force of a tsunami. The effects, sadly, are already visible. L ‘State revised their estimates down Pil in the second quarter: the drop was 12.8% compared to the previous quarter and 17.7% in the same period of the previous year. The preliminary estimate published on July 31 showed a contraction of 12.4% in the short term and 17.3% on a trend basis. The worsening is, therefore, 0.4% in both trend and cyclical fashion. At the same time, it should be noted that in the second quarter of this year there was one business day less than both the previous quarter and the second quarter of 2019.
“The full estimate of the quarterly income statements confirms the exceptional magnitude of the decline in GDP in the second quarter due to the economic effects ofhealth emergency and the containment measures adopted, with decreases of 12.8% in economic terms and 17.7% in trend terms, never recorded since 1995 “, Istat announced, commenting on the quarterly data. Dragging down the fall in GDP, continues the statistical institute, it was above all the domestic demand “with a particularly negative contribution from private consumption and significant negative contributions from investments and changes in inventories.” But not only that, the document specifies that external demand has also made a negative contribution: this is due to “reduction of exports stronger than that of imports. The contraction in production was accompanied by a marked reduction in labor in terms of AWU and hours worked, while jobs suffered a less marked decline ”.
In the second quarter of this year, all the main aggregates of domestic demand fell, with drops of 8.7% for final national consumption and 14.9% for gross fixed investment. The outlook is aggravated by the data on imports and exports, which decreased by 20.5% and 26.4% respectively.
The situation that Istat certifies today is even more worrying if we take into account that the GDP has not grown for a year. The last plus sign, a very modest + 0.1%, dates back to the second quarter of 2019. Since then there has been “zero” economic growth in the following quarter and therefore a number of negative trends: -0 , 2% in the last quarter of 2019, -5.5% in the first three months of 2020 and, finally, -12.8% announced today. The variation in GDP acquired, which would be obtained in the presence of a null economic variation in the remaining quarters of the year, for the first half of 2020 is equal to 14.7%. the government estimates for 2020 a negative GDP trend of -8.3%.
The GDP figures are “dramatic” ed “The worsening of Istat’s estimates compared to those published on July 31 makes Minister Gualtieri’s goal of containing the impact of the pandemic crisis on GDP this year even more difficult at -8%.” Affirmed it Massimiliano Dona, president of the National Union of Consumers. “The 8.7% drop in national final consumption and, above all, the 11.3% drop in spending by resident families, has catastrophic implications for our economy- Dona added-. It goes without saying that, given that household consumption represents 60% of GDP, the key to reactivate the country is to return spending capacity to those who have had a drop in their disposable income ”.
Istat also expressed concern for the national president of Fapi, the autonomous federation of small businesses, Gino Sciotto: “Enough of talks and proclamations. The collapse of the gross domestic product is a code red. The country runs the risk of sinking into the most serious economic crisis in its history. State machine, capable of restoring confidence to companies and families.”
As if that were not enough, other very worrying data have been provided by Confcommercio who in a note highlighted that the Covid 19 epidemic will burn 116 billion in consumption in 2020 with an average of 1,900 euros each. The association explained that if at the national level the decrease in consumption will be 10.9% compared to 2019, for a loss of 116 billion, the strongest decrease in percentage terms will be in the Trentino (-16%) while in Molise there will be -7.2%. the north It is still the area most penalized: of the 116,000 million fewer consumption estimated for the current year, more than 65, therefore around 57%, are derived from the eight northern regions that in 2019 accounted for 52% of consumption on the territory of Italy as a whole.
The president of Confcommercio, Carlo Sangalli, commenting on the analysis of the Confederation Research Office on regional consumption published today, raised the alarm: “No area of the country has been spared the consequences of the Covid. This year we will lose more than 116,000 million of consumption and about 9.5 points of GDP. To return to growth, thanks also to European funds, more measures are needed They are incisive and fast in their application. Time is not in our favor and the fiscal and bureaucratic problems that slow growth have not yet been resolved. “
