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What appears to be the latest provocation comes from an interview with Print. “The Government? I don’t think I have the numbers. does not get 161 votes, touch a government without count“, He maintains Matteo renzi. With the P.S and the 5 star movement who have closed, at least for the moment, to a new dialogue with Alive italy (defined by Nicola Zingaretti “Unreliable in any scenario”), while Riccardo nencini -the senator who granted Renzi to have his group in the Palazzo Madama- announces his intention to remain in the majority, for the former prime minister the original plan seems to have failed. And that is to withdraw the ministers and break with the executive, then start a new negotiation from outside to bring Chigi Palace a person other than Giuseppe Conte. The script of an accomplished gamer poker, Renzi’s, which however seems increasingly difficult to implement. As hour X approaches next Tuesday, in fact, the hypothesis that the prime minister can still pick up a Madama Palace the votes necessary to maintain the majority. Even without Alive italy.
“In the Senate, trust is taken with a relative majority” – For this reason Renzi fixed on 161 the necessary threshold to ensure, from their point of view, the success of the prime minister. And other all insideOnly this time the hand is rigged: Renzi, in fact, knows very well that in Parliament confidence is not obtained with an absolute but a relative majority. It means that in order to raise support from Palazzo Madama a Conte you just need to get just one more vote in favor than opposites. Remember it is the constitutionalist Stefano Ceccanti, Deputy of the Democratic Party nominated by Renzi in the last elections. “For trust 161 votes not needed in the Senate, the constituents deliberately wanted a relative majority, i Yes, they just have to beat the NoCeccanti writes in an article on his website. “The original draft of our Constitution – recalls the leader of the dem group in the commission Constitutional Matters – ordered the absolute majority (in addition to the Chambers together) to obtain confidence. The liberal Bozzi in the session of the Constituent Assembly on October 24, 1947 objected that this would have been worthwhile. illogically government formation is more difficult. He was then followed by the socialist Stampacchia and finally by Costantino Mortati. Therefore, the Assembly rejected the final text of Article 94 without providing no reinforced quorum. Therefore, to gain confidence it is only necessary that I Yes, beat the No“. But not only. Because Ceccanti also explains that” until the last legislature there was a problem with the calculation of abstentions why while who he abstained from voting was not counted, on the contrary those who abstained IN VOTE (that is to say. he voted abstained) came added to opposites. Now it is no longer the case only counts Yes and No“.
The rigged hand of the Renzians – So after raising the stakes once again with the story of 161 votes, Renzi also plays there abstention card. He, always tells the Turin newspaper, will not vote against the prime minister but will abstain. This is how his group is also oriented to do, both in the Chamber – where the government should have a majority even without Italy alive – and in the Senate. Renzianos are convinced that without their 18 votes, the majority would go no further at Palazzo Madama 150, 152 votes. Conte would therefore have a relative majority but with the abstention of the Renzianos, which would be fundamental to reach an absolute majority. “At this point – they tell the press agencies – we wonder if Conte will keep trying to push the ball.” Practically a all inside inall inside what makes the Senate look more and more like one clandestine gaming booth. A dangerous bet not only for Conte, who chose to go to measure with the vote in the classroom, but also for the challengers of Italy alive.
The abacus of the majority – Armed with an abacus, in fact, in the Senate the prime minister can consider how Yes, sure to your government I 35 votes of Democratic party ei 92 of the 5 star movement. To these must be added 8 votes from the 9 members of the group Autonomy (the ninth is from the president emeritus Giorgio Napolitano, who has not participated in work for some time for health reasons). So we start from 135. To which must be added those of the Mixed group, which in the Senate has a total of 29 members, not all in favor of the executive. For Conte the component of Leu with six senators, namely the leader of the group Loredana De Petris, Pietro grasso, Basque Errani, Francesco La Forgia, and the old grilline Paola Nugnes, Elena Factors. Then there are the exponents of Maie, currently still in the Mixed but which has just been constituted as an autonomous group of “builders” pro Conte: this is the undersecretary Ricardo Merlo, Adriano Cario, Raffaele fantetti, Saverio De Bonis me Maurizio Buccarella. Speaking of builders, you’ve been voting for trust in the government for some time Sandra lonardo, that’s the wife of Clemente Mastella. With the majority is then the independent left Sandro Ruotolo e l’ex Pd Tommaso Cerno. They are given among those who in the end should vote Yes -although among a thousand distinctions- even the previous 5 stars Gregorio De Falco, Lelio Ciampolillo, Tiziana Drago, Marinella Pacifico, Luigi di marzio me Mario Michele Giarrusso. Even the senator for life Mario monti He said that he will choose how to vote only after having listened to the prime minister in the classroom, but defined a government crisis as incomprehensible: “These are things that always lead the rest of Europe and the world to distrust when they look at Italy.” Words that enter the former prime minister in the list of “builders”. A list that would also include the other senator for life from Mixed, namely Liliana Segre, in case you attend the session on Tuesday.
Abstained, against, senators for life: the variables – In this way the 29 exponents of the Mixed would be 22 to vote Yes after Conte’s intervention at Palazzo Madama. Therefore, the total number of majority votes would be – with all the necessary conditions – 157: threshold sufficient to have the relative majority with or without the abstentions of Italy alive. And maybe that too absolute. The 161 votes cited by Renzi, in fact, represent a quorum only if all 321 senators (315 elected plus 6 for life) will be in the classroom to vote. Having said the absence of Napolitano and the probable Yes of Monti and Segre, Elena Cattaneo He is one of the 8 of the Autonomie group that so far have supported the Conte 2 government. It is not known what they will decide to do. Renzo Piano me Carlo Rubbia, since they very seldom participated in the works. Regardless of what this calculation considers sure votes against the government at least seven other members of the Mixed group (Emma bonino, the three of Let’s change – Massimo Berruti, Gaetano Quagliariello and Paolo Romani – the former dem Matteo richetti and the old M5 Gianluigi Paragone me Carlo Martelli), I 19 di Brothers from Italy, the 63 of the League and all 54 Go Italy. The total would be 143. Here too the conditionals are essential since among the Berlusconians for days an area of responsibility. The impression is that in the end the abstentions could be even more than the only exponents of Alive italy.
Theory and practice: the relative majority strategy – In theory, therefore, it is enough for Conte to simply have one more vote to maintain confidence. The archive is full of precedents: the governments in office, even without an absolute majority, are full First Republic. It is clear, however, that in this condition the executive would have to face a purely political problem: it should govern with a most very fragile and – always in theory – easily defeated. However, this is not necessarily a strategy to react game dei Renziani: Overcome the rock of Palazzo Madama, buying time to shore up the numbers later. It is true that the head of state never liked the majority “collectors“And it is also true that the Count himself said that he was against governing by vote”taken here and another thereAvoiding mistrust, however, would mean overcoming the first part of the crisis. And then working to try to reach the fateful 161 threshold later, without the help of the Renzians. To abstain or not.
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