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Carlo Solimene
They officially made a pact so that nothing changes even if everything changes. But Nicola Zingaretti and Giuseppe Conte know very well that if the result of the Regionals were disastrous for the majority of the government, their positions as secretary of the Democratic Party and prime minister would be the ones most at risk. And that is also why, over the weeks, the waterline to distinguish between victory and defeat has been gradually narrowing. Established that confirming the four Regions in the hands of the center-left among the six in the vote seemed like a utopia from the beginning, we went from considering a tie – 3 to 3 – acceptable to even considering a 4 to 2 sufficient for the center right. Provided, of course, between the two surviving Regions you are, the red Tuscany.
It is above all between the coast of Livorno and the hills of Siena, between the Florentine historical testimonies and the industrial warehouses of Prato that part of the destiny of the government is at stake. For days, the Democratic Party strategists have been wrestling with increasingly complicated calculations: “If we win by about twenty points in Florence, if we hold up well in Livorno, then it’s done.” But the truth is that the historic Red Fort had never been in danger before. Especially because of a candidate, Eugenio Giani, who did not warm the hearts of the Tuscans. And thanks to a right center that has not repeated the mistakes of the past. A candidate rooted in the territory, Susanna Ceccardi, and a much more “moderate” campaign than the one carried out in Emilia Romagna, without “intercoms” or calls for “liberation” or parachute jumps as was hypothesized, suddenly, by Matteo Salvini .
If the advancement of the Northern League in the cradle of communism were to materialize, a domino would begin that would lead to the settlement of scores in the Democratic Party and inevitably also involve the government. Certainly not at the initiative of the Head of State – it is impossible to return the country to the vote in the middle of the Recovery Fund game – but because Conte finds it difficult to resist the disintegration of his majority. A free all that, more than an official tear, could materialize in a parliamentary accident. And it would lead to an avalanche that would only break against a technical government of not very easy origin.
Of course, then there are the other games. Campania, which in all probability will remain (but Vincenzo De Luca makes history in itself, it is anything but Gypsy and Contian), Puglia that clings to the hope of the disjointed vote of the Cinquestelle for Emiliano (but Di Battista, who asked El Morro, replied that “the seat is not a toilet …”), the Marches where the secretary went to fight until the end, another historical bastion about to change sides. There is, above all, the referendum on the cut to parliamentarians that, barring surprises, will confirm the reform wanted by Di Maio. But that will still be a victory for the Cinquestelle, even though Zingaretti has swallowed the yes-to-a-rampant option and Giuseppe Conte, absent from the Regionals campaign, has shrewdly exposed himself in this vote alone.
The whole background, actually. The party that counts, the Italian Ohio, this time will be Tuscany and the handful of votes that will separate Zingaretti from success – conquered fighting alone, this must be recognized – and defeat, with Governor Emiliano Stefano Bonaccini already warming up to replace him in the top of the party.
As for the center right, they are living the eve of the vote in a much more relaxed mood. If Giorgia Meloni has everything to gain from voting – Fratelli d’Italia does not manage any of the Regions at the polls and could win two – Salvini is the only one who has something to lose. If he does not conquer Tuscany and if Luca Zaia in Veneto collected more votes with his list than Carroccio, the challenge for leadership could be rekindled. But it will still be difficult to question the secretary who brought the party from 3 to 30%.
Liguria remains, the region where there is another paradox. The only election in which Pd and 5 stars have managed to identify a common candidate is another in which defeat is almost taken for granted. In all others, the gap between the government’s allies could be decisive in determining defeat. With the piddini to lick their wounds and spit poison on Cinquestelle. Those who, for their part, will at least be able to console themselves with the yes to the court of the parliamentarians. Before realizing that, precisely because of the referendum, three-quarters of them will not see the Palace again. When a pyrrhic victory is said.
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