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Biden and Trump on the court for the dispute
Democrats are counting on this wave of votes, concentrated in urban counties like Fulton and DeKalb in the Atlanta region. Republicans at a traditional voter rally on official voting day and in rural strongholds such as Walker County, in the northwestern state and in exurb, the most isolated suburbs. It is no coincidence that Biden himself is in Atlanta on Monday, the 10th US city by GDP, multi-ethnic and with a diversified economy between aerospace, technology, medical services, media; Trump will instead fly to Dalton, at the foot of the Blue Ridge Mountains, a city still very white and in trouble among flooring and siding companies.
On the success of election gambling sites for Republicans
Democrats would like to show that Georgia, and the more avant-garde South, has undergone a political and cultural metamorphosis as well as a socioeconomic one. The proof is uncertain: Republicans have so far dominated state elections, albeit with diminishing margins. And ballots and votes for local representatives tend to lead to voters more sensitive to the traditional values of which Republicans are a bulwark. The uncertainty sees election gambling sites giving Republican senators success, and the few polls give contenders little advantage.
Factors in favor of the Democrats
In favor of the Democrats, African Americans play the leading role, the engine of electorate growth: of the nearly two million new entrants in the last twenty years, half are black. And today, 2.5 million is a third of the total, five percentage points more than in 2000. Voters of Hispanic and Asian minorities have also tripled. In ten years, however, whites have fallen from 61% to 53% of registered voters.
The knot of ethnic minorities
However, the ethnic minority electorate has often remained underrepresented at the polls, depressed by longstanding difficulties and by restrictive Republican participation strategies. Although today the obstacles have been questioned by the pandemic, which has been opened to postal and early voting. And of a strategy of the Democrats that has put aside strategies aimed at winning over undecided white conservatives to favor new voters. In doing so, they followed Stacey Abrams, who narrowly missed the 2018 gubernatorial election but focused on the potential of the registration crusades that in 2020 registered 800,000 new voters.
The cracks in the monolithic white vow
The monolithic white vote itself has cracked: in turn, today it is more concentrated in the cities and their immediate provinces, younger and more educated. Georgia, thanks to economic development, has become a magnet for skilled workers, often from the northern states closest to the Democrats. Those who had the right to vote, with these migrations, went from 5.8 million in 2010 to 7.5 million this year. The drive for urbanization, in particular, has made great strides: the Atlanta region, a basin of more than half of the votes received by Biden, gathers as many as six million residents of the ten million in the state. It’s not isolated either – other emerging urban centers range from Savannah and Macon. And in areas adjacent to cities, the evolution is similar. Northeast Atlanta, Gwinnett County, 935,000 residents and for decades a Republican stronghold, has seen Democrats win since 2016.
