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Even with considerable differences (from -5.6% in Germany to -12.4% in Spain), the “black swan” of pandermy leaves a strong mark on the main European economies. That now look towards the new year
by Dino Pesole
Even with considerable differences (from -5.6% in Germany to -12.4% in Spain), the “black swan” of pandermy leaves a strong mark on the main European economies. That now look towards the new year
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Intense red for Italy and for most European countries at the end of the year that saw the materialization of the “black swan” of the pandemic. Although with different intensity and depth, the recession is very significant and will leave its mark, with a 7.8% drop in GDP in the euro area. In Italy, the latest estimates from the European Commission amount to a GDP in free fall of 9-10%, compared to -5.6% in Germany, -9.4% in France and -12.4% in Spain.
With 2020 archived, expectations are now all focused on next year and also in this case there are differences in the main economies of the Old Continent.
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Germany deals with the “new blockade”
The German economic institute Ifo just cut its GDP growth estimates for 2021 to 4.2%, compared to 5.1% previously. The Bundesbank, for its part, has slightly revised its economic growth forecasts for Germany in the current year (-5.5% compared to -7.1% previously) but expects a less dynamic recovery in 2021: 3% (in it was previously 3.2%), with growth rates increasing by 4.5% in 2022 and 1.8% by 2023. According to reports from the President of the Bundesbank, Jens Weidmann, the economic recovery is mainly due to private consumption and the forecast is that the containment measures put in place so far to deal with the consequences of the pandemic will gradually relax in the spring of 2021 “due to medical advances and consumer options will be used again”.
It will certainly be less difficult for Germany, compared to Italy, to return to growth rates at least equal to pre-Covid levels, since it started from more sustained returns than the “zero point” rates highlighted by our country in recent years. . One of the most important variables, along with the trend in domestic demand, will be exports and from this point of view, the wait is the next decisions that the new Biden administration will make in the United States. Could the Trump-era tariff season be considered definitively closed?
In France, GDP is 8 points below the pre-crisis level
According to the most recent data published by the French National Institute of Statistics, after the -12% shown in November, the economy in December is expected to settle at a value equal to 8 percentage points below its pre-crisis level . In the whole of 2020, the recession should be -9%. However, the lights are on the horizon, with an estimated recovery of 6% in 2021, especially in relation to the arrival of vaccines and the expected and gradual relaxation of restrictive measures. Overall, the GDP recovery will continue to be less sustained than could be predicted until a few months ago. This is what the Bank of France assumes, which locks the 2021 growth bar by 5% in 2021. Only in mid-2022 is GDP expected to return to the pre-crisis level. Three months ago, the central bank was targeting a 7.4% rally in 2021.
