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The shutdown and the pandemic are priced higher than expected. Istat has revised down its GDP estimates in second quarter of 2020 (precisely that of the almost total closure of activities): the 12.8% state decrease compared to the previous quarter and for 17.7% compared to the previous year. The preliminary estimate (published on July 31) was more optimistic: a contraction of 12.4% on an economic basis and 17.3% on a trend basis. the deterioration therefore, it is 0.4% on both trend and cyclical terms. Italy’s GDP has never seen such a significant drop since 1995. The data confirm the exceptional magnitude of the fall in GDP in the second quarter due to the economic effects of the health emergency and the containment measures adopted. Drag the fall in GDP – explains Istat – was above all domestic demand, with a particularly negative contribution fromprivate consumption and significant negative contributions of iinvestments and changes in inventories Istat explains. External demand also contributed negatively, due to the more decisive reduction in exports than imports.
Domestic demand
In the second quarter of the year, compared to the previous three months, all the main aggregates of domestic demand decreased, with decreases of 8.7% for national final consumption and 14.9% for gross fixed investments. Imports and exports have decreasedrespectively 20.5% and 26.4%. According to the institute, the net national demand for shares contributed -9.5 percentage points to the contraction of the GDP, with -6.7 points in the consumption of families and Private ISP Social Institutions, -2.6 points in investments gross fixed assets and -0.2 points of spending by Public Administrations (PA). The change in inventories and net external demand also contributed negatively to the change in GDP, respectively, by -0.9 and -2.4 percentage points. Are registered negative economic trends for the added value in all the main productive sectors, with agriculture, industry and services falling, respectively, 3.7%, 20.2% and 11%, concludes the Istat report.
GDP has not grown for a year
With 12.8% in the economy certified by Istat for the second quarter of 2020 (a figure clearly influenced by the aftermath of the block decided by the Covid pandemic), the long streak of “lack of growth of our economy” is confirmed . The last pi sign, anemic + 0.1%, dates back to the second quarter of 2019, and was followed by zero economic growth in the following quarter and, therefore, by a series of negative trends, with -0.2 % in the last quarter of 2019, and therefore -5.5% in the first three months of 2020 and then from -12.8% reported by Istat.
Inflation: + 0.3% in August, -0.5% year-on-year
The Institute of Statistics also published preliminary estimates on inflation. Consumer prices rose in August, but less than last year: the index registers an increase in 0.3% on a monthly basis and a decrease in 0.5% on an annual basis (from -0.4% in the previous month). Therefore, inflation is confirmed as negative for the fourth consecutive month and higher on a monthly basis by one tenth of a point compared to July (not since April 2016). Negative inflation is mainly determined by the evolution of the prices of energy goods regulated (stable at -13.6%) and unregulated (-9.0% to -8.6%) and a steepest drop in transport prices (from -0.9% to -2.3%). Food products, for home and personal care slow slightly (from + 1.2% to + 1.1%), while the high-frequency purchase products, the so-called shopping cart, they remain stable at -0.1%. This is highlighted in Istat’s preliminary estimates of the trend in consumer prices.
