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Three scenarios. Three hypotheses about what will happen in the winter in Italy. Already starting in the next few weeks. It was him Technical-scientific committee, in a confidential document that would be on the government table, according to Il Sole 24 Ore. The scenarios take into account the continuous increase in cases, with the threshold of 5,000 new infections per day now well exceeded. In the document, the CTS considers what could happen in the coming months, assuming that the interventions will be launched until March 2021. We went from the current containment phase to a mitigation phase. There are actually four scenarios: the first, however, is now considered out of date, regarding a low transmission: it was, in fact, what happened in early summer.
The first scenario: manageable crisis, limited restrictions
The first scenario, the considered yellow, seems to be the current one. He anticipates some of the measures that could be implemented from Monday with the next dpcm. This scenario sees an Rt index just above 1, as is the case today in 13 Regions. The virus is considered “manageable”, Hospitals can face the emergency without particular concerns. In this case, activity stops for hours could be foreseen, as could happen in bars and gyms. And also of the “local red areas”.
Covid, the second scenario: temporary closures
The goal is to avoid switching to the second scenario, that orange. What would happen with an increase in infections and an Rt between 1.25 and 1.5. In this case, the risks of narrowness of the health system would be concrete and closures could be foreseen between Regions or intraregionals. With this scenario, some productive activities considered higher risk could be blocked and “red areas with temporary closures“Maybe a couple of weeks or so. For the school, it would be asked to favor distance learning and in the case of face-to-face classes it would be advisable to use the mask on the desk.
The third scenario for winter: closures and closures
The third scenario is the most catastrophic, so much so that it has been defined rosso. The epidemic would be out of control, with an Rt index greater than 1.5 and criticality “the stability of the health system in the short term“. Schools and universities should be closed and also the possibility of a emergency shutdown generalized, with extension and duration to be defined. Even if, even in this case, the preferred hypothesis could be that of the closure of individual Regions or specific parts of Italy, trying to avoid a widespread closure at all costs.
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