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The “motor“that moves the pandemic of COVID-19 It is made up of numerous pieces and mechanisms: coexistence under the same roof, group activities, crowded environments, but also asymptomatic elusive, super-diffusers and contexts that amplify infections. To analyze them one by one are the experts of Johns Hopkins University of Baltimore, in an article published in Science.
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Most infections in the home
In reviewing the most recent scientific evidence, the researchers underscore that most infections occur in the home: partners have a six times greater risk of becoming infected than other close contacts. The most exposed are the spouses of the sick and the elderly who live in a family with younger people. The risk is also high in hospitals, nursing homes, dormitories and prisons, where contacts are repeated and close, generally between older people.
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Asymptomatic, super speakers and amplified transmission
At the community level, the transmission of the infection is greatly affected by the action of the asymptomatic, who continue to circulate compared to the sick despite having a comparable viral load. The spread of the virus can become super-spread in particular settings, such as choirs, department stores, and religious events, where people have closer contacts in a short period of time. There are also contexts where transmission can be amplified if several infections occur one after another in rapid succession, as has already been seen in slaughterhouses, churches and schools.
The amplification of infections, added to the action of superdiffusers, could explain why 10% of those who are positive for the SarsCoV2 virus are responsible for 80% of infections. It is the so-called “over-dispersion” phenomenon, already observed in other diseases such as influenza and measles, so that most of those infected do not transmit the virus in a significant way, so it is necessary to reach a good number of cases to let the epidemic break out. in an obvious way.
Last updated: 20:18
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