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ANSA
“That there has been an acceleration, in the last 10-15 days, in the number of infections throughout Italy is a fact. But I would be careful before talking about exponential growth. We are not in this situation ”. This was stated by the president of the Higher Health Council, Franco Locatelli, invited half an hour more at RaiTre.
“It is correct to look at the figures with the utmost attention and alertness, but we are not in a situation of panic or alarm. Of the 11,000 cases registered yesterday, only a third are symptomatic. In the critical phase, in March, we all identified symptomatic subjects ”. And again: “We are almost 700 people hospitalized in intensive care, a number that is not comparable to the time of the peak” last spring, observed the professor, who noted that Italy is “a country with a positive rate in the proportion of tampons among the lowest in Europe. The health situation is not comparable to March, “he reiterated.
“I don’t think we have to reach” a curfew at night to counteract the spread of coronavirus infections, “certainly perhaps attention should be paid to the meetings, perhaps by implementing surveillance mechanisms.”
For Locatelli, “in Italy we have learned to protect ourselves” and “we have a formidable ability to clean”. “I think the Regions have a whole series of plans to activate resuscitation. They were not activated because there was no need. We have 700 ICUs out of 6,600 now ”.
Locatelli then explained that, although it is “unquestionable that there has been a strong growth” in the number of infections in recent days, one cannot speak of exponential growth, because there is no product of a variable times a fixed number and therefore it is different from linear, where there is a number that is added to the previous one. He also said that there is circulation of the virus that affects the European continent and that today the average age is just over 40 years old, while in February and March it was over 65.
“Schools must remain open”
The chief doctor of the Bambino Gesù hospital also spoke out against the hypothesis of a new school closure. “Schools must remain open.”
School first. School, along with work and productive activities, is the priority. Extraordinary effort has gone into and you need to stay open. The school’s contribution to the spread of the virus has absolutely no impact ”.
The vaccine? We will probably have it available in the spring of 2021 ”. Until then we must live together to minimize the impact of the coronavirus on the lives of Italians. ” Regarding the risk of a new general closure of the country, Locatelli commented: “I want to hope that we do not reach a closure on a national scale, we are working on that, also to reconcile the protection of health with the maintenance of productive activities in the country”.
Out of control if Italy 600 thousand infections
If the number of those infected by coronavirus will reach or reach Italy at an altitude of 600 thousand, then we could speak of a pandemic “out of control”, Locatelli clarified. There are several factors to consider before we can talk about an out-of-control pandemic: “bed occupancy, contact tracing.” Today there is a line of thinking that is developing in Europe according to which “the system runs the risk of getting out of control when there is around 1% of the infected population, in Italy, therefore 600,000 people”. This ”is a variable too influenced by a series of strategies that prevent this scenario, mathematical models are useful but – Locatelli stressed – we must take into account the data that may interfere. There are also contexts that are influenced by the months of February and March ”.
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