Four scenarios for the second wave in Italy: what to expect

There is confusion under the sky, and it could only be so. We are heading towards the first pandemic winter in Italy, and scientists have prepared 4 different plans depending on the scenario to be described. A document of the Scientific Committee indicates, in view of the second wave, the possible stages of diffusion and the necessary interventions. The real emergency begins with Rt above 1.5 for at least three weeks in Italy.

First scenario: the situation is under control, similar to that of July and August. Second scenario: there is a sustained transmission of the virus but the health system is capable of handling it. Third scenario: the spread of the coronavirus puts the health system at risk in the medium term. Finally, fourth scenario: the transmission of the virus in the country is not controlled “with criticalities in the stability of the health system in the short term.”

Four scenarios for the second Italian wave

For each level, specific interventions are planned, from the creation of red zones to the closure of schools and universities. As Michele Bocci writes in Repubblica, the hundred-page document will shortly be presented to the Regions. The second wave is probably already underway, but the situation is totally different compared to March: just look at the number of people hospitalized in intensive care throughout Italy to realize this. Because first we intercept the virus. There is nothing momentous in this preparatory paper from the scientists, but there is a lot of common sense.

The “readiness” document is similar to the one that has been controversial in recent months because it was classified. Now there are no numbers, instead four scenarios are used to describe the progress of the epidemic. We reason both nationally and locally, in the sense that the situation may be of a type throughout Italy and better, similar or worse in a region or part of it. For this reason, compared to the national situation, in individual regions there may be four levels of risk: low, medium, high for less than 3 weeks and high for more than 3 weeks.

The first scenario involves follow-up, basic precautions. So if things get worse, we change our pace, it’s inevitable.

The second scenario occurs if there is a sustained national circulation, with many outbreaks on the rise, but in which there are no short- and medium-term fears because the health system is capable of handling the situation. However, if the risk is moderate or high in some regions, important measures can already be taken, both in schools and outside, with limited red zones. The third scenario is when RT increases steadily, cases increase, outbreaks have sustained growth, and there are risks to the system in the medium term.

Right now, almost all regions are in the second tier, the second scenario. In areas where the third level is entered and there is a moderate or high risk, closures of social and cultural activities could also be decided. Then there is the fourth scenario, which occurs when the RT jumps above 1.5, for twenty days: with red zones and other more stringent measures. Palazzo Chigi does not intend, with the new Dpcm -which should last 30 days- to close restaurants, bars and discos or to advance their closing time. Instead, masks will be mandatory outdoors, in all likelihood.

New coronavirus infections in Italy continue to decline, but in the face of a very low number of swabs, as is usual on Sunday. In the last 24 hours, 2,257 positives were registered (yesterday they were 2,578), the result of just 60,241 tests, already above 92,000 yesterday. The victims are 16, against 18 the day before. The total number of people infected since the beginning of the emergency amounts to 327,586, the deaths are now 36,002. By far the largest number of new cases in Campania with 431 positives identified. No region has zero new cases. It requires a lot of attention.

Coronavirus, towards the new Dpcm: no curfew and early closings