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After nearly a year spent trying to contain the coronavirus pandemic, European countries are now facing problems that they had neglected in months to have the resources and energy needed to deal with the health emergency, and that they can no longer do. . Wait. By the end of 2020, an agreement must be reached on the new multi-annual budget of the European Union – and therefore also on the so-called Recovery Fund – on Brexit and on the European Green Deal, while in the field of politics Outside, it is necessary to agree on an approach of the new US administration of Joe Biden and the making of important decisions about Turkey.
All while thousands of people continue to die every day from COVID-19, and national apparatuses must deal with the imminent distribution of the vaccine and avoid a possible economic and social crisis triggered by the pandemic. The first opportunity to address at least some of these issues will be the meeting of the European Council, which is the body that includes the 27 heads of state and government of the European Union, scheduled for December 10-11.
The most pressing issue, at least for now, appears to be Brexit. The transition period in which the United Kingdom is still part of the European Union expires on December 31, and the negotiations to negotiate a trade agreement between the two parties have been stalled for months (and between spring and summer they were held back by the fact that both chief negotiators had COVID-19, and that for a long time the meetings had to be retransmitted). The meetings in recent weeks have been unsuccessful, and tonight the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will meet to try to unblock the negotiations.
The trade deal is 95 per cent ready, European sources say, but for months there has been a gap in three very significant points: the right of European fishermen to access British waters, the mechanism to resolve disputes and the commitment of the United Kingdom not to subsidize its companies so that they compete unfairly with European ones.
The situation is described as very fluid: “We are in uncharted territory,” von der Leyen spokesman Eric Mamer said yesterday. A No deal It would be disastrous in the short term for the UK (independent analyzes point to a reduction in UK GDP of at least 2% in 2021), but it would also create a lot of problems for French and Dutch fishermen, for the many German industries They export to the UK, and to the entire Irish economy. But a No deal It could paradoxically strengthen the Johnson government, which has been repeating for months that leaving without an agreement is better than finding a “bad” compromise and trying to attribute any stumbling block in the negotiations to the intransigence of the European Union, supported by the main British tabloids.
The results of the meeting that are considered more likely are two: an agreement in principle that allows the chief negotiators to file the details in the coming days (difficult, but not impossible) or the admission of not being able to reach an agreement. In this case, Brexit would become the priority of the European Council on Thursday 10 December.
For now, the Council’s priority is another, which has also emerged in recent weeks: finding an agreement on the 2021-2027 multi-annual budget of the European Union.
Negotiations on the new budget began more than a year ago and had already entered a stalemate before the pandemic: on February 20, a first European Council on the new budget had failed due to the too great distance between the countries that they wanted to expand the budget and the so-called “frugal four”, the most conservative countries from the economic point of view, which instead wanted to leave it more or less unchanged. In the following months, the same factions also clashed over the Recovery Fund, only to agree on the entire package at the end of the long July Council.
Since the amount of European money at stake between the 2021-2027 budget and the Recovery Fund has almost doubled compared to 2014-2020 (1824 billion compared to 959), several Western countries have claimed to include a clause on budget measures restricting Disbursement of funds in accordance with the rule of law: a big problem for several Eastern European countries used to distributing funds within their own ruling class, to increase control over local politics and the economy local. Poland and Hungary, two countries led by semi-authoritarians, opposed the new clause and vetoed the entire budget in mid-November.
– Read also: Why doesn’t the EU expel Hungary and Poland?
If no agreement is reached before December 31, the European Union will enter a provisional exercise phase, something that has never happened until now. Until the approval of the new budget, each month one twelfth of the annual amount agreed in 2020 may be spent for each spending chapter. It means that the European Union will not be able to guarantee the continuity of the most substantial programs, including for example those of education and research (Erasmus + and Horizon) and the cohesion funds will also be significantly reduced, which are distributed in the poorest regions of Europe .
For at least two weeks, the German government, which manages the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU, the body where the representatives of the 27 national governments sit, has been negotiating to remove the veto from Hungary and Poland. The Commission is also involved in the negotiation, which said it expects news for today: otherwise, it will propose to the Council tomorrow to approve the Recovery Fund with an emergency procedure contemplated in Article 122 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union that establishes “special financial assistance” in the event of “natural disasters or exceptional circumstances”: ultimately, a Recovery Fund separate from the balance sheet and in which Poland and Hungary would not participate.
Yesterday, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán met with Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and was optimistic about the possibility of reaching an agreement: but it is not clear whether the two countries will be satisfied with a declaration of intent from the Commission. to specify that it will examine the Respect for the Rule of Law without prejudice, or if they ask for more money from the budget and the Recovery Fund, reopening a discussion that seemed closed in July.
Hungary and Poland, among other things, are also included among the countries that are getting in the way to the point that until a few weeks ago it should have been at the top of tomorrow’s Council priorities: the final agreement on the Law. Climate, the pillar of the European Green Deal, a series of measures to make energy production and the lifestyle of European citizens more sustainable. For the Commission to put it into operation as planned, that is, in 2021, the Climate Law must be passed as soon as possible: in recent months a lot of time has already been lost, as it was originally supposed to be debated in the Council European March and then monopolized the pandemic.
– Read also: The European Green Deal, well explained
The Climate Law serves to include in the European treaties the goal of reducing net pollutant emissions across the Union to zero by 2050, which will make the goal binding, as well as setting specific intermediate targets. For the time being, the commitment made by the previous Commission included a 40% reduction in net emissions, which is now considered obsolete and insufficient. Among environmentalists, the widely held view is that to do its part and comply with the Paris Agreement, the European Union would have to cut emissions by 65 percent.
In September, the European Commission proposed a cut of “at least” 55 percent, leaving the European Council with the task of finding a political agreement between states. Most of the eastern states still depend on unsustainable energy and are asking for more margin and more resources to manage the transition: for now in the 2021-2027 budget and in the Recovery Fund 17,500 million have been allocated for this purpose, but it is not clear if the Eastern countries intend to obtain more money (as both the Parliament and the Commission had requested) or to include natural gas or nuclear energy among sustainable sources, which, however, would expose the European Union to criticism of ecologists and experts in renewable energy.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has hinted that she has the first option in mind first and foremost. On Wednesday 9 December, in a speech to the German Parliament, he said that reaching a compromise on the Climate Act “depends largely on the progress we make on economic issues”, that is, on the multi-year budget.
Finally, the European Union should seek a common approach on two major foreign policy issues: on the relationship with the new US President Joe Biden – about which there should be no major discussions in view of an expected rapprochement with the United States – but above all about possible sanctions. to be approved in relation to Turkey.
– Read also: Why are Turkey and Greece fighting in the Mediterranean?
For months, Turkey has been adopting an increasingly aggressive attitude in the Mediterranean Sea, carrying out explorations in the waters of Greece and Cyprus, an island where, among other things, it claims territorial sovereignty, rich in natural gas. Turkish exploration was resumed in October, after a pause probably due to German-mediated negotiations with the Greek government. “We have not observed any change of course”, said two days ago the High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs, Josep Borrell: “in various aspects the situation has even worsened.”
For a long time, the European Union has turned a blind eye to Turkey’s aggressiveness in the Mediterranean due to its particular status as a candidate to enter the European Union, a partner in the management of irregular immigration from the Middle East and a country with strong ties. cultural for example with Germany, where a large Turkish community lives.
Today, among the countries most in favor of the introduction of sanctions, in addition to Greece and Cyprus, there is also France: its position was probably influenced by the campaign that French President Emmanuel Macron has been waging against political Islam for weeks. , of which Turkish President Recep Erdogan is one of the main exponents. However, it is still not clear whether all EU countries will be willing to approve the sanctions – which according to European treaties must be decided unanimously – and which sectors they should cover: diplomatic sources consulted by Reuters They said that if a deal is reached, they will likely involve the energy and gas extraction sector.
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