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New positives in evaluated cases are declining, and the growth in hospitalizations is also dramatically slowing compared to last week. There are 36,176 (yesterday there were 34,283) cases of Coronavirus registered in Italy in the last 24 hours, for a total of 1,308,528 infected since the start of the health emergency. This was announced in today’s bulletin, Thursday, November 19, released by the Ministry of Health. Those cured since the beginning of the pandemic are 498,987 (+17,020, yesterday + 24,169), while the deaths from Covid are 47,870 (there is an increase of 653 deaths in the last 24 hours, yesterday they were 753). The currently positive cases are 18,503 (+18,503). Of these, 33,610 patients were hospitalized with symptoms and 3,712 were in intensive care. Overall, swabs performed in the past 24 hours were 250,186, an all-time record since the start of the pandemic. The Region with the most positive cases daily is Lombardy with 7,453 cases followed by Piedmont and Campania with more than three thousand new cases.
“Today’s data is not bad.” Giovanni Forti, 26, is a student of Economics at the University of Pisa and at the Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna. Since 2018 he has been part of the writing of YouTrend, where he deals with the editorial part, data analysis and data visualization production and in YouTrend he has written several articles on the Covid-19 pandemic: “Net of our ability to test, clearly we have reached a plateau of infections – explains Forti to Fanpage.it -. Unfortunately, this still means 34,600 cases per day, plus 653 deaths. A hundred less than yesterday, but still a lot ”.
Let’s start with another good news. Today, the positivity rate of tested tampons is decreasing …
It is true that there is a slight decrease. Today we are below 15% and, on a weekly average, it is the first time in two weeks that we have fallen below 16%. However, it must be said that many swabs arrived late from Friuli Venezia Giulia and Piedmont. This affects the very high number of tampons today, more than 250 thousand. Absolute record, since the beginning of the pandemic.
Would there still have been a drop in the positivity rate without those excess buffers?
Hard to say. Let’s take the good news for what it is today, and see if it will be confirmed in the coming days.
Even hospitalizations are growing very little nowadays, and last week he told us that this is a fact that we must pay close attention to …
Hospitalizations are an important fact, because they measure our ability to find symptomatic cases and to treat, and therefore, discharge those who are hospitalized. Today they have grown 106 units compared to yesterday. A very low figure, if one takes into account that until last week the average was a thousand daily hospitalizations.
Is this also a fact today?
In recent days we had observed a decrease in hospitalizations, around 400-600 units per day. But we haven’t had 106 hospitalizations in a long time. Specifically, since October 4, more than 40 days ago.
Deaths are also down compared to yesterday …
Yes, but here I would not dare to speak of good news, after two terrible days with those of yesterday and the day before yesterday. The deaths are the bad news this week: We have had 4,281 deaths, so far, since last Friday. Are so many. It was since April 9 that we had not mourned so many deaths from Coronavirus.
Where did all these deaths come from?
If in recent weeks growth was observed especially in Lombardy, this week deaths have also increased significantly in Piedmont, Veneto, Lazio and Campania. In Veneto, there have been more than 100 deaths from Covid-19, just yesterday.
Is it a trend that you expect to continue growing in the coming days?
We may have other days like yesterday and the day before yesterday. We hope not to reach a thousand deaths, undoubtedly a huge number and above expectations.
Speaking of expectations, did we already owe the effects of government measures?
Yes, especially in Piedmont and Lombardy. And indeed, there is stagnation in these two regions. The decrease in hospitalizations in Lombardy and Piedmont could tell us that the measures are starting to be effective: it is the first time in the last four weeks that we have found fewer hospitalizations in one day than the day before.
What are the places where the virus is growing the fastest?
These are regions that already have strong restrictions, such as Val d’Aosta and Piedmont, but also in regions that had been more slightly affected in recent weeks, such as Sicily and Puglia.
Is there a red zone risk for these two regions?
It depends: there are criteria to decide the passage of the zone that are not read in the bulletin. I would not dare to say that these regions are condemned to the red zone.
How did You Trend’s Synthetic Severity Index move today?
Today it fell to 83 out of 100, compared to 84 yesterday and the day before yesterday. To push it down today, and up in recent days, was the number of deaths per day. The increase in intensive care beds and the decrease in hospitalizations, on the other hand, keep the stress index of the health system, as well as that of infections, substantially stable. Today, the severity of the pandemic increasingly depends on the large number of deaths.
You have one last question about Christmas …
It’s hard to talk about it. It seems that we are close to the peak, which is a matter of a few weeks. But remember that the peak of the first wave occurred between March 27 and March 30, and the decline in ICU patients began on April 2. From there it had been almost 35 days until the reopening on May 4. To have a reopening at Christmas, we should have peaked today, basically. But even if it started in late November, if the descent had the same pace and speed as in April, it would still be too late to reopen at Christmas. It is clearly a political decision, that. Neither statistical nor based on scientific evidence.
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