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Now the numbers leave no more doubts: the increase in Covid-19 cases that has been registered in Italy for a few days cannot be attributed to a random variation: “this is not a fluctuation, we will not return now,” says the el physicist Giorgio Sestili, founder and one of the curators of the Facebook page “Coronavirus: Scientific data and analysis”, who has followed the trend of the epidemic from the beginning.
Therefore, we are facing a different situation than the one recorded just a few days ago and the change is too recent to be able to see clearly what will happen. “At the moment there are two possibilities: either the cases will stabilize for at least a period at the recent values of more than 2,500 positive cases, or an escalation has begun.”
The answer may come in the next few days and weeks. “We cannot know what will happen, but it is true – Sestili observes – that infections will no longer fall below 2,500, net of fluctuations that depend on tampons, as occurs on weekends.”
Therefore, we could find ourselves facing a step similar to the one that in August had quickly caused the number of cases to jump from a few hundred to more than a thousand. At that time, a series of causes had determined the jump. For example – he observes – the infections imported from abroad and the overcrowding of the premises during the summer night had a great impact ”. In the case of this beginning of autumn, the jump could be a consequence of the “resumption of work and school activities. In general – Sestili observes – in autumn our habits change: we spend more time indoors and use public transport more. “.
While waiting to understand how the situation will evolve, one fact that should not be missed is that of admissions to intensive care facilities. At the moment it is evident that current growth is much slower than that which occurred in February-March, but “we are in a situation in total evolution and to be monitored. The problem,” he says, is to understand how long the National Health Service will endure before get. in saturation “.
To keep the situation under control, the three key prevention measures are very much needed: wearing masks, respecting the distance, and washing your hands frequently. “The obligation to wear masks outdoors is also welcome to avoid contagion in overcrowded situations, such as entering and leaving schools or in the streets of nightlife, but there is no doubt – Sestili concludes – that if they are respected the rules no more restrictions are needed “
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