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The destiny of the Christmas period and a good part of our winter will be played in the next 10-15 days. There is no room for mistakes; we know how winter is CONSERVATIVE in terms of settings. If the season starts off badly, it is likely to end just as badly, if not worse.
There is a wish for winter redemption, after a series of silly stations controlled by anticyclonic pachyderms in relation to a polar vortex spinning at a thousand.
This year, the polar vortex had the chance to finally close the game with winter in the first days of December, but it went wrong. The famous MALE (North ring mode) failed to cross the stratified cooling threshold that would definitely put the winter season in a seat like it has in recent years.
After trying several times, it now seems like it’s given up … in fact, it’s in progress right now. an opposite reaction that comes from both stratosphere (with a partial heating) both of a Reactivity of the underlying troposphere.
Like in soccer wrong goals are often punished by the opposing team’s victory; Consequently, this year the winter could also play its cards by not having stratospheric conditioning in the rump.
After this important premise, let’s return to earth. What do the maps say for the “hot” days of Christmas? Here we show you the hemispheres of the American and European model valid for the day of Saint Stephenor Saturday, December 26. Let’s start with the American model:
Italy is marked with the blue circle. We observe the two planetary waves (Aleutinian and Atlantic) still quite weak and not very penetrating. This will involve some kind of baric swamp in Italy, where mild high pressure will be present over time “neither meat nor fish”. Note the vorticities still unbalanced too far north of Italy, but with probable ambitions to descend towards us if the spine of the two waves becomes more insightful.
The European model for the same day is much more interesting:
See how the Atlantic wave turns out very insightful, which is going to intrude on the polar vortex at its headquarters. The Aleut wave (top left), on the other hand, seems a bit weak, but is still present.
Another very important thing, the opposition of the Siberian frost to the jet, with the creation of a quite impressive thermal cyclone on site (white arrow). This would further threaten the health of the polar vortex, making it even more disturbed.
The results for our Peninsula (in the white circle) would be disturbed weather with risk of low-altitude snow starting from the north and gradually increasing the cold.
For the moment, the thesis of European model It seems preponderant though not much compared to the American thesis … on 60% vs. 40%. Keep following us because the situation for the Christmas period is getting really interesting …
Always check the forecast detailed and specific to your city, continually updated:
>>> ROME
>>> MILAN
>>> NAPLES
>>> other locations
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