Emiliano, two factors for a victory that seemed impossible: the divided vote and the ‘useful’ vote changed the challenge

If there is one fact that is already definitive in these regional elections in Apulia, it is the extraordinary recovery that Michele Emiliano has made in recent days over his main opponent, the MEP of the Italian brothers Raffaele Fitto. The latter had a strong and united center-right coalition in Puglia for the first time in 15 years. On the other hand, the outgoing governor – always a difficult position during elections compared to opponents, as noted by the regional secretary of the Democratic Party Marco Lacarra – not only had a coalition in a thousand pieces with the Renzianos on the one hand to support along with Action and + Europe Ivan Scalfarotto and 5 Estrellas stubbornly decided to stand alone in the elections, but they also had to defend themselves against accusations of having mishandled in the first five years of government at the head of the Region.

In short, for Fitto, the path to recover the regional president position in the building on the Bari seafront seemed to be level. But in recent weeks there has been a slow but unstoppable recovery of that extraordinary electoral campaign machine that is Emiliano. In fact, since 2004, the magistrate on leave of absence has never missed a shot when it comes to elections.

Twice elected Mayor of Bari from 2004 to 2014 and once to the Region, this is perhaps his most difficult battle. Until the outbreak of the Covid emergency, their prices were very low, the lowest of their cursus honorum in politics. The emergency brought out the best part of the administrator Emiliano, as several exponents of the center left have also pointed out on several occasions.

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Certainly, however, a fundamental part of this recovery must be attributed to the polarization of the confrontation between Emiliano and Fitto. A polarization desired by the national center-right leaders, Matteo Salvini and Giorgia Meloni, who have made long electoral tours in Apulia, with Meloni even making a good retirement during the summer holidays. Both convinced that Puglia could finally return to the right.

Here, this presentation by the leaders of the Lega and Fratelli d’Italia, that is to say of the right with sovereign traction, must have aroused a reaction on the opposite side, stimulating the desire of the center-left voters of Apulia to go to the polls, even “holding his nose”. “In this sense, two variables may have favored Emiliano’s recovery: the call for the vote of the left and the divided vote. The first has arrived in recent days. Intellectuals, important exponents of civil society, references from Bari and Regional government left a few hours from the polls, decided to openly take sides in favor of that governor who had attacked harshly in the five years of regional government, both in form and in substance and that I never thought they would discuss again.

As for the divided vote, it was a karst movement, difficult to predict, but which seems to have been widely revealed at the polls. In practice, the call for a useful vote through which all center-left exponents have passed, from the Secretary of the Democratic Party Nicola Zingaretti, through the Minister of Regional Affairs Francesco Boccia and the mayor of Bari Antonio Decaro, has made inroads between that The electorate of the 5-Star Movement that after 15 years of center-left government started with Nichi Vendola’s revolution in 2005 (surprisingly victorious over Fitto) did not want to hand over the Region to the center-right. But the real surprise is that there could have been, judging by the projections, also the separate vote of the center-right.

This explains the disappointing result of the 5-Star Movement candidate Antonella Laricchia, who had also resisted requests for an alliance with the center-left made by Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, presenting the Movement only in elections. With the approval of Barbara Lezzi and Alessandro Di Battista. The two supporters of the return to the origins of the intransigent, tough and pure Movement, who now appear, along with the Renzianos, on the list of losers in these elections.