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The epidemic in Italy worsens even more, there is a very serious generalized and generalized situation in the national territory with criticalities in numerous Autonomous Regions / Provinces: this is the conclusion reached by the Higher Institute of Health and the Ministry of Health to the light of the last monitoring of the epidemic, which concerns the week of October 19 to 25 and, therefore, does not yet incorporate the restrictive measures of the last Decree of the Prime Minister. The incidence of the virus went from 146.2 cases per 100,000 inhabitants to 279.7 per 100,000 inhabitants.
Regions at risk
Eleven Italian regions, according to the data, are now classified at high risk of uncontrolled transmission of the disease: Abruzzo, Basilicata, Veneto, Liguria, Val D’Aosta, Calabria, Lombardy, Piedmont, Puglia, Sicily, Tuscany. Eight other regions are classified as moderate risk with a high possibility of progressing to high risk in the next month: Campania, Emilia-Romagna, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Lazio, Molise, Umbria and in the autonomous provinces of Bolzano and Trento. but nevertheless all Regions reported critical aspects of resilience, except Molise. And there are some regional contexts in which it is important to carry out an assessment of urgent and focused intervention, stressed Professor Silvio Brusaferro, president of the Higher Institute of Health, at the press conference organized by the Ministry of Health for the control room of the epidemiological situation in Italy. There is no magic wand but a close and continuous monitoring, which allows you to pack the recipe week by week, specified Brusaferro, anticipating
The numbers
With the number of new cases reported nearly doubling compared to the week of October 12-18, 2020 (100,446 cases compared to 52,960 cases in the previous week), this week, for the first time, the occupancy threshold was reported to be exceeded. critical in medical areas. (40%). Usually, the number of people admitted to intensive care increased from 750 (18/10) to 1,208 (25/10); While the number of people hospitalized in medical areas increased from 7,131 (10/18) to 12,006 (10/25). In the same period, the number of symptomatic cases doubled: from 27,117 (period 5 / 10-18 / 10) to 54,377 (period 12 / 10-25 / 10). Even if the overall Italian scenario is still type 3, relative to last week’s data, we are moving towards a type 4 scenario, Emission and the ministry specify, recalling that in the most critical regions (Emilia-Romagna, Lombardy, Piedmont, Province of Bolzano, Calabria) the transmission speed is already compatible with a scenario 4 with the risk of health services in the short term . Unfortunately, it is increasingly difficult to find complete data due to the serious overload of local services which, it is observed, could lead to an underestimation of the transmission speed, particularly in some Regions.
Leave
The median age of people who contract the Sars-CoV-2 coronavirus infection in recent weeks, after a period of stabilization, is increasing slightly and this means that only the young population is no longer infected, as it did during the month. in August (the week of August being the lowest peak), but the contagion affects all age groups, explained Brusaferro. In recent months, swabs from symptomatic subjects were now tested 70% of the swabs of people with paucisymptomatic or asymptomatic are analyzed.. This explains why the median age of infected people went from 78 to 50 years (age at which there is also 1% of deaths). The metaphor used by Brusaferro gives the idea: Before we saw the tip of the iceberg, now we see the bottom.Transmission of the virus to older people is cause for concern. So the more we can treat and keep people at home, as the teacher points out Franco Locatelli, president of the Superior Council of Sanit– By avoiding an overload in ordinary hospital rooms and in intensive care, we can better guarantee the optimal management of patients and the operation of hospital rooms also for other pathologies.
The recommendations
The recommendations are clear: A drastic reduction in physical interactions between people is needed to ease the pressure on health services.. It is essential that the population avoid all occasions of contact with people outside their own home that are not strictly necessary and that they stay at home as long as possible. In addition, we remind you that it is mandatory to adopt rigorous individual behaviors and respect the health measures implemented regarding spacing and correct use of masks. And the need to comply with the measures recommended by the health authorities is also recalled, including measures that provide for the quarantine of close contacts in proven cases and isolation. The Regions and Autonomous Provinces are invited to carry out a continuous risk analysis, also at the subregional level, and to consider a timely increase in mitigation measures in the most affected areas according to the level of risk and based on the guidelines.
L’Rt
In the period between October 8 and 21, 2020, Brusaferro explains, Rt travels around 1.7, all regions are above Rt 1 and some significantly higher. The epidemiological picture that emerges from worsening both in terms of new cases and progression of Rt. Rt values higher than 1.25 are found in most of the Italian Regions / PA with values higher than 1.5 in different Regions / AP and this is an important element, says Brusaferro. But it should be noted that the TR of a region is the result of an average between the different areas, because in some regions there are areas or provinces that are particularly affected and others less.
Abruzzo: Lane 1.13
Basilicata: Carr. 0.83
Calabria: Lane 1.84
Campania: Rt 1.29
Emilia Romagna: Lane 1.6
Friuli Venezia Giulia: Rt 1.47
Lazio: Rt 1.43
Liguria: Rt 1.35
Lombardy: Rt 2.01
March: Rt 1.35
Molise: Rt 2.1
PA Bolzano: Rt 1.92
Pa Trento: Carr. 1.56
Piedmont: Rt 1.99
Apulia: Rt 1.47
Sardinia: Rt 1.04
Sicily: Rt 1.38
Tuscany: Rt 1.19
Umbria: Rt 1.45
Aosta Valley 0.92
Veneto: 1.47
October 30, 2020 (change October 30, 2020 | 4:58 PM)
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