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Elder Restrictions over 70 in the new Dpcm November 2? The idea, proposed by some experts and supported by some mathematical models, could find a place in the package of anti-Covid measures to come.
A call generational closure, a controversial measure that would greatly reduce Covid mortality and ease pressure on the healthcare system. But how could this work? Is a confinement really feasible for the elderly? Here are the things to know while waiting for Conte’s lecture on the new Dpcm.
Seniors at home in the new Dpcm? What is selective blocking?
Among the strategies designed to contain the damages of the epidemic is the isolation of the elderly, that is, the most fragile segment of the population and subject to complications and deaths from Covid.
In view of the new Dpcm that Conte is preparing to sign, in Italy there is talk of the possibility that among the various measures it is also possible to opt for the so-called selective blocking for those over 70. restrictions.
An option considered useful given that in Italy mortality affects the vast majority of cases over 70 years of age and given the unreliability of herd immunity.
Hence the idea of protecting the most exposed sectors of the population.
According to the estimates ofIspi (Institute for International Political Studies), the82% of the deceased for Covid-19 in Italy it was over 70 years old, 94% over 60.
The data shows that 7 out of 100 over 80 die of Covid-19 while only 5 out of 10,000 people in the age group 30 to 39 years. Therefore, the difference is abysmal.
Data on deaths from Covid in Italy
According to the Ispi data (Institute of International Political Studies), with an isolation of the over 80 direct mortality from the virus would be cut in half or almost; if we could effectively isolate the Over 60 Covid mortality would be reduced to 0.07%, about 10 times less than the current one.
At the same time, experts say, we would ease the pressure on the health system considering that (according to data from Lombardy) 1 in 2 of those in intensive care is over 63 years old and 3 out of 4 are over 56 years. A selective isolation would therefore avoid the scenario similar to that of last March, with 1,200 patients in intensive care instead of 4,068.
Finally, according to the scholars, a confinement for the elderly would be less serious and more manageable than a generalized confinement since the percentages of employed older people in the world of work are low (9% of those over 60; 2.4% of those over 65; 0.5% of those over 70, and many of them can work from home). This is a rather controversial and debated aspect that has already sparked a bitter debate following the regrettable statements of the President of Liguria Giovanni Toti.
