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Yellow, orange and red. Three risk areas according to the level of danger of the spread and transmission of the virus, each Region has its own punishment like every day. For now this is the case. Yesterday afternoon the Prime Minister, Giuseppe Conte illustrated the text of the Dpcm and the order in which the Minister of Health, Roberto Speranza, assigned each one his own.
But things could change very soon. Notwithstanding the three colors, the list could be modified, in a few hours the Regions could find themselves in a different band from the one established. Tomorrow, the day the Dpcm comes into force, in an even more precarious condition. How is it possible? It all depends on the data on which the decisions were based. “Old data”, thundered several governors – in the leader Attilio Fontana, of Lombardy – contesting the band assigned by the minister, with the center-right that makes it the banner of the last confrontation in Parliament. In fact, the figures on which “the control room” – Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Ministry of Health and Technicians of the Regions – drew up the list yesterday are those of the monitoring published last Friday and refer to the period covered between October 19 and 25. Dated evaluation, which fatally does not take into account what happened as of October 26. For example, the increasingly restrictive ordinances signed by some governors, and the repercussions in terms of alleviating, albeit minimal, the grip of the virus.
The level of risk therefore needs to be reassessed. The control room must do it tomorrow morning and, like every Friday, in the afternoon Iss and the Ministry of Health illustrate the new monitoring, based on updated data, in this case per week from October 26 to November 1 . Will the image change? According to many technicians, yes. And here it is, the risk that the Regions find themselves in a different band than the one assigned to them yesterday. We are already wondering what will happen to Liguria, Veneto, Campania and Tuscany, for now included in the yellow area, in light of the new data. Taking into account the automaticity provided for in the Dpcm – which “yes, there is, although it is not so simple because you have to take into account the methodological problems with which you have to read and interpret the data”, explained yesterday the general director of Prevention from the Ministry of Greetings, Gianni Rezza – to trigger the passage of the band, in case of a worsening of the parameters, will they slide into the red zone? Probable. What if, instead of getting worse, the scenario for a Region as of October 26 had improved to the point of requiring a step to a more attenuated risk phase? In this case, the trigger is not automatic: to win the least critical band, it will be necessary to wait fifteen days, the period of validity set by the ministry in the order signed last night. Which, in turn, others could follow. In the afternoon, the president of the ISS, Silvio Brusaferro, and Gianni Rezza will illustrate the indicators that led to yesterday’s ordinance and who knows if any new elements may emerge from the press conference about the near future.
Which brings with it, already tomorrow, the day when the Dpcm will be formalized, belonging to the area assigned yesterday, the risk that some Regions will be assigned to another area. As a consequence of the scarce conciliation between the times of evaluation of the technique and the times of decision of the policy, a greater redefinition of the areas would increase the confusion in an already strongly disoriented country. While the virus, beyond lists, colors and shades, continues to work.
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