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There are 12,756 i new infections recorded in the last 24 hours in 118,475 swabs analyzed. The trend, therefore, seems decidedly on the decline if we consider that 20,709 new cases were recorded last Wednesday but in a much larger number of tests: 207,143. Therefore, it is necessary to understand whether and to what extent the decrease in tampons has affected the decrease in infections. The fact is, more good news is coming from the newsletter. Starting with the constant decline in intensive care (the balance between entry and exit today is -25) and in patients with symptoms (-428 in the last 24 hours) that after almost a month drop from 30 thousand (specifically 29,653 .
On the other hand, 152 admissions to intensive care units were registered in the last 24 hours, compared to 192 yesterday (but the figure is essentially stable compared to December 6 and 7).
Entrance to intensive care
- December 9, 152
- December 8, 192
- December 7, 144
- December 6, 150
- December 5, 192
- December 4, 201
- December 3, 217
Returning to the data on infections, as Lorenzo Ruffino points out on Twitter, the variation of cases registered between Monday and Wednesday with respect to the average of the last four weeks is equal to -48%, while tampons have fallen by 33% .
Cases between Monday and Wednesday
- This week: 41,318
- A week ago: 56,436
- Two weeks ago: 72,015
- Three weeks ago: 93,827
- Four weeks ago: 93,330
Cases between Monday and Wednesday
– this week: 41,318
– Last week: 56,436
– two weeks ago: 72,015
– three weeks ago: 93,827
– four weeks ago: 93,330Change from the average of the last four weeks
– almost: -48%
– buffers: -33%– Lorenzo Ruffino (@Ruffino_Lorenzo) December 9, 2020
But the most comforting data in recent days is the decrease in deaths, a trend that we register while we assume that these are numbers that should be taken with caution.
The truth is that if we take the victims registered between Monday and Wednesday, there has been a fairly evident slowdown in the last week.
- This week: 1,661
- A week ago: 2,141
- Two weeks ago: 2,205
- Three weeks ago: 1,988
- Four weeks ago: 1,559
The variation with respect to the average of the last 4 weeks was -16%. Of course, we must not forget that we are talking about figures that unfortunately continue to be terrifying: in the last 24 hours there have been 499 deaths.
At least compared to yesterday’s data, the positive rate for tampons is on the rise, standing at 10%.
What will happen in January?
What will happen after the Christmas holidays? In “Predicting is better than cure,” authoritative Big Data page in depth on the pandemic, yesterday they risked a forecast. “We are still in the middle of the second wave. All the curves remain downhill and even the death trend now seems clear and in line with the other curves (both temporally and numerically).
“So let’s make some medium-term predictions. Considering various factors (ie, current R0
“As always – read the post -, all this can happen, IF and ONLY IF individual and collective attention and responsibility remain high. Much depends on us! Make it clear also to your loved ones, friends and acquaintances that a “Good” scenario of this type, with the contagion curve that will not run again, will still bring us approximately 14,600 more deaths from Covid-19 ”.
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