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A tightening of the rules is imminent in the Regions or areas where the circulation of the virus is strongest. Even more drastic restrictions in the red zones, but the criteria of the gangs is maintained and a new national closure is not in sight, in the style of March of last year. However, the pressure from the CTS and the control room is strong and today a meeting with the heads of delegation is possible, especially if the Ministry of Health intends to change some parameters to evaluate the Rt index that could cause many regions to change their color.
Mattarella will receive the anti-Covid vaccine tomorrow: at 12 in Spallanzani in Rome
There are many hypotheses in the field for new closures and they are made by the members of the CTS and the control room who are divided between those who would like all of Italy in the red zone (including Sardinia), those who would like to anticipate the curfew at seven o’clock at night, others who think it is appropriate to close everyone indoors on weekends. A series of more or less suggestive proposals that collide with the dpcm launched just a few days ago based on the suggestions of the Cts and that the government intends to examine carefully but without hysteria. Including the possibility of automatically activating the red zone when the ratio of 250 cases per 100,000 inhabitants is exceeded. It is difficult to say how much the sensitivities of the parties weigh on the options, even if yesterday Berlusconi invited Draghi to “guarantee clear, coherent options, with adequate progress” and Salvini argued that “a new blockade without vaccines is useless.”
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Today the CTS will meet again, but before the weekend it is difficult to have news also because the new Dpcm He has set up a table at the Ministry of Health, which will be attended by Ministers Speranza and Gelmini and the Regions that will elect their representatives only on Thursday.
The projections circulating among the Ministry of Health experts are on the basis of the request for stricter restrictions, even more so than the data in the weekly or daily reports. Yesterday, beyond the dramatic psychological limit of 100,000 deaths from Covid, there was a very timid slowdown in the speed of growth in the number of new cases. But there has also been a dangerous increase in hospitalizations (more than 782): there are currently 24,531 Covid patients in Italian hospitals, of which 2,700 are in intensive care. Since December 21, such a high number has not been registered. With the growth rate of these days (also yesterday another 231 new hospitalizations in intensive care) we will reach the peak of 4,000 that was reached in the first phase of the pandemic.
Not only that: if you look at the national transmission rate, which in the report was 1.07, but based on data from 7 to 10 days ago, the calculations on the current situation assume at least 1.2-1, 3. Even regionally, the real Lazio Rt runs the risk of reaching that level (today it is below 1), the same reasoning for Veneto. In principle, with some exceptions such as Sardinia, almost all Regions have the Rt above 1. Furthermore, the variants are running: paradoxically, the English no longer worries, because it is already the dominant, but the Brazilian, for which now cases have also been reported in Lazio, both in the border areas of Umbria (where there has been the greatest spread of these variants), and in the province of Frosinone.
“It is necessary to close now – it is the thesis that circulates between the experts and that Speranza also believes – of having a few weeks available to vaccinate many people.” The push for stricter measures had started earlier, a month ago, with the minister’s consultant, Professor Walter Ricciardi; Now, although with different nuances, they also come from the Scientific Technical Committee and the Control Room (made up of heads of the Ministry of Health such as Professor Gianni Rezza and those responsible for the Higher Institute of Health).
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MEASUREMENTS
Repression in high-risk areas
On the table of the CTS and the control room there are several hypotheses of intervention. The most popular refers to the increase in red zones that could be established by “skipping” the long procedure foreseen at the time it intervenes based on data of 7/10 days. In essence, the red band would start from the data collected a couple of days before by the Regions and no longer on those validated by the ISS but dating back to the previous week.
The other hypothesis that is being worked on is the lockout of businesses, at least where schools are closed. The objective is very clear: to prevent children from taking school lessons from home in the morning and going in droves to shopping centers in the afternoon, with the risk of being infected by the English variant that “chooses” the little ones . Meetings are held at the Ministry of Education to evaluate all the possible hypotheses on the table together with the experts from the Istituto Superiore di Sanità. Several governors are pushing for the most extreme solution: closing schools across the country.
Christmas model, Italy in red on weekends
Another idea that is constantly circulating is to return to the so-called “Christmas model” or the decision to change the entire country to the red band for holidays or pre-holidays and to orange for the weekdays. But innovative measures could be taken such as the suspension of mass vaccinations in some areas (the movement of people automatically leads to an increase in infections) and, on the contrary, the concentration of administrations in the most affected urban centers. This last solution was adopted last week by the Lombardy Region in some countries, such as Viggiù in the Varese province, particularly affected by the English variant with results that seem encouraging because it seems that the increase in infections has slowed down. This solution could also be favored by the Ministry of Health circular that will allow the AstraZeneca vaccine to be used even in people over 65, as France and Germany have been doing for about ten days and as Great Britain has been doing since then. Christmas.
Curfew advance maybe 7pm
Another hypothesis about the carpet is to make the red band even redder in the microzones where the English and Brazilian variants are already the masters. The closures could be further expanded, which, according to the latest Dpcm signed by Prime Minister Mario Draghi, also provide for the lockout of hairdressers and barbers. In the worst case, and always for limited areas, an early curfew could be triggered even until 7:00 p.m. The Dpcm philosophy and the need for new rules. The Dpcm in force until April 6 entrusts the presidents of the regions and mayors with the responsibility of adopting more restrictive measures. But now, since the virus shows no signs of slowing down the race, it is necessary to standardize the rules and evaluate the strengthening of measures in particular in some areas of the country. The parameter of 250 cases per 100,000 people, which has already been applied to trigger school closures, could be replaced because it discourages local health authorities and regions from searching for the virus using swabs.
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