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“Almost the entire country has a moderate or high risk of an uncontrolled and uncontrollable epidemic. Red alarm in the control room located in the general direction of sanitary prevention. According to the CTS, “these conditions do not allow the measures adopted with the decree of December 2 and the DCPM of December 3 to be relaxed.” On January 8, the two bodies that support the government met in parallel and in both minutes of the meetings dedicated to timely classifying the risk situation in order to assess the need for modulations in response activities to the epidemic, the maximum alert level. Christmas is feeding the same wave born of the messy and extravagant mid-August and inevitable that the new will be influenced in a restrictive sense Dpcm which should launch on Friday the 15th and go into effect the next day.
Control room minutes -> click here to download the pdf
According to institutional observers, “after a few weeks of decline, an increase in the incidence was once again registered at the national level in the last 14 days (313.28 per 100,000 inhabitants (December 21, 2020 – January 3, 2021) versus at 305.47 per 100,000 inhabitants (December 14, 2020 – December 27, 2020), flow data from the ISS) », reads the document signed by Giovanni Rezza, Silvio Brusaferro and the other 10 members of the room Control of Civil Protection. “We highlight, in particular, the persistent high value of this indicator in the Veneto region (927.36 per 100,000 inhabitants in the last 14 days.” The Cts, according to report n. 630-2020 / 972 of two days ago, It observes a generalized increase in risk, mainly due to the increase in bed occupancy rates in intensive care and medical areas and, in light of the data and considerations expressed, the Committee highlights that the incidence in the country is still very high. ”
The minutes of the Cts -> click here to download the pdf
THE INDICATORS IN INCLINATION
The impact throughout the territory is still far from “levels that allow the complete reestablishment of the identification of cases and the tracing of their contacts throughout the national territory.” The hospitals showed “the first signs of criticality when the value at the national level exceeded 50 cases per 100,000 in seven days and a criticality of sealing with high incidences.” The outlook has become even more worrisome because the numbers say so.
In the period from December 15 to 28, 2020, the mean Rt calculated on symptomatic cases was equal to 1.03 (range 0.98 – 1.13), increasing during four weeks and for the first time, after six weeks , above the quota. 1. Three regions have a punctual Rt significantly higher than 1 (Calabria, Emilia Romagna and Lombardy), another 6 have an average value (Liguria, Molise, Sardinia, Sicily, Umbria, Valle d’Aosta), another 4 have a value the same (Puglia) or who touches it (Lazio, Piedmont, Veneto). There is a clear global increase in the risk of an “uncontrolled and unmanageable” epidemic due to a generalized increase in the probability of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the national territory in a context in which the impact on health services continues to be high in most regions.
In particular, 12 autonomous regions and provinces (Emilia-Romagna, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Lazio, Liguria, Lombardy, Marche, Piedmont, PA Bolzano, PA Trento, Puglia, Umbria, Veneto) are classified as high risk this week. Of these, there is a specific RT that is compatible with a type two scenario in Emilia-Romagna and Lombardy. The persistence of a particularly high incidence in the Veneto Region (927.36 per 100,000 inhabitants in the last 14 days) is confirmed. Eight Regions have a moderate risk (Abruzzo, Basilicata, Calabria, Campania, Molise, Sardinia, Sicily, Valle d’Aosta). In two regions (Calabria and Molise) there is a moderate risk with a high risk of progression to high risk in the coming weeks. In addition, it is worth noting a specific Rt compatible with a type two scenario in the Calabria region.
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