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ROME – “More than reopening for Christmas, I think the situation is so bad that I have to advise the opposite: take advantage of the end of the year holidays to close everything in those two weeks and try to stop the infection. But I understand that you have to take into account the needs of the economy … “Andrea Crisanti, professor of Microbiology at the University of Padua, one of the pioneers who fought (and partly defeated) the epidemic in Vo, is very skeptical about government decisions, judged too cautious due to the impact of Covid.
Professor, they say the contagion curve has cooled down. RT fell from 1.7 to 1.4. Minister Speranza sees the light at the end of the tunnel. Do you see it too?
“It takes a lot of faith to believe it. If you look at the contagion curve and the dynamics of deaths, you understand how we are in a situation comparable to that of March. And if we take into account that with the total blockade of that time we had to wait until the end of April to glimpse the famous end of the tunnel, you can guess where we are. And we’re not even doing a real close here. “
Conclusion?
“The impact of the restrictive measures will be less than then and it will take longer for them to take effect.”
A third of intensive care units are occupied, beds in ordinary wards are scarce. Will our health system be maintained?
“We need to discuss something else: how much suffering and deaths we are willing to accept. The system can also withstand and at the same time have more deaths than the first wave. But the metric must be calibrated on human and social suffering, not on the tightness of the system.” .
The government has turned two thirds of the regions “red” and “orange”. Is not sufficient?
“I think the block will still have to be done. It will be inevitable, the numbers will dictate it. The RT will remain greater than or equal to one for a long time. It is a mathematical question.”
Total closure for two, three weeks? That is the solution?
“Look, I don’t know for how many weeks. But look at what is happening in France, which has registered 900 deaths a day despite the fact that quite important measures have been taken there throughout the country.”
Elementary and middle schools open, except in the red areas.
“We should have had a different approach to school. Children up to ten years old get a little sick, elementary school and kindergarten are not a big problem. But we should have evaluated the effects of early opening in school districts Then decide. Instead, we have prepared various measures only because, suggested by the CTS, we had not even received the tables of the Law of Mount Sinai. “
Now we are thinking about Christmas. Would it reopen?
“Without tools to counteract the spread throughout the territory, how can we think of a relaxation? In January we will be in this situation again if not a worse one, in the middle of the third wave. It is so elementary: take advantage of the holidays to close. than to reconcile the emergency with economic needs. But then do something: extend the opening hours of the stores, stagger the entrances, avoid crowds in all directions, at home and abroad.
Buffer record at 250,000. She argues that much more should be tested. Is that so?
“With this level of infections, the number of swabs done no longer makes sense. It made sense to do 400,000 a day to block the chain of spread. At this point, the tide of the virus is out of control.”
In short, can only the vaccine save us? First doses in late January?
“Having the first doses in January, February or March certainly does not affect the spread of the epidemic. Let’s talk about it again when 70% of the population gets vaccinated ”.
And that’s when?
“A year will pass. But don’t you realize that they have not even managed to meet the needs of the flu vaccine? Imagine what will happen with the anti-Covid ”.
When are we really out of this, professor?
“End of 21, beginning of 22.”
