[ad_1]
Distribute . / reuters
“The infections are the same as in March, but then they were just the tip of the iceberg. We have to take the tests to 400 thousand per day ”. This is Andrea Crisanti, the professor from Padua, father of the Venetian model, to whom the government commissioned a buffer plan. In the Corriere della Sera he tells his “Buffer plan” and explains what the truth is about the numbers.
The more people you know, the more likely you are to get infected. And then the numbers are the same as in February-March. But what are the differences?
This resumption of transmission, however, presents some differences from what we observe during the terrible months of February, March and April (it is clear to all): most of those infected are young, mostly asymptomatic or with symptoms very mild. And comfortingly, the number of people hospitalized in Covid and resuscitation rooms increases by a few units a day without putting pressure on the health system.
The numbers show that there was an underestimation of reality.
In the current phase, aware that infected people may be asymptomatic or have mild symptoms, tests are carried out on people who previously would have been neglected and therefore the data is much more representative of the actual transmission of the virus. At this point, the accounts add up. The cases of these days are about 15 to 20 times lower than those of the first weeks of the pandemic, calculated taking into account the contribution of asymptomatic and mild cases. If we multiply by 15 the number of patients hospitalized in intensive care and the daily deaths of these days we are approaching the values of February-March.
Another element to consider is that older people have adopted very prudent behavior to avoid transmission and at the same time nursing homes are subject to much stricter measures.
The great problem in counteracting the spread of the virus is the high frequency of asymptomatic subjects who can transmit the infection without knowing it. Identifying the asymptomatic is precisely the challenge we face to prevent cases from reaching the limit. (…). It is, therefore, this urgency that led me to present, at the invitation of some members of the government, a plan that leads to increasing, up to four times on a national scale, the ability to rub, overcoming the regional barriers and divisions that have generated a panoply foolish. of initiatives and technological adoptions that certainly generate confusion and in some cases are counterproductive.
[ad_2]
