“Covid will last 20 years if we don’t reopen.” Shock article in Science, experts divided



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Rome, March 6, 2021 – Relax measures and promote acquired immunity in younger generations, wherel Covid-19 it works almost asymptomatically, can it help to get herd immunity sooner? One of the many studies produced in the US is going viral in Europe, let’s talk about an article published in the magazine Sciences (https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6530/741).

Covid Newsletter of March 6

Researchers from Emory and Penn State University, USA, revive the idea that we will have to learn to live with the virus SARS-CoV-2 Without exaggerating with the closures, taking into account that this enemy will reappear in waves, with more or less marked ups and downs linked to the alternation of the seasons, until it is confused once and for all, as it happens with the common cold. Humans, this is the starting point, we have always been exposed to infectious agents, epidemics that cause a kind of natural selection.

In recent decades, write authors Jennie Lavine, Ottar N. Bjornstad, and Rustom Antia, humanity has faced multiple challenges from acute viral infections, including severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), Middle East respiratory syndrome ( MERS), Ebola, etc. all outbreaks are immediately limited. But if the situation gets out of hand, as it happened in the case of the new Coronavirus, it is necessary to understand and plan the transition towards a different behavior model, which considers the virus as endemic, that is, inevitable. ”So, in other words, if we don’t reopen this pandemic will end in twenty years. On the contrary, the more we let the virus circulate, the sooner we will defeat it, as long as we protect the most exposed and vulnerable groups, such as the elderly, and continue with vaccines, monoclonal antibodies, heparins, etc. antivirals and other known therapies.




But going back to the initial dilemma, do all these indiscriminate closings make sense? The answer is that in terms of costs and benefits, Western societies cannot afford a casual attitude, because after a few days the hospital-centered health system was skipped, the roulette would begin between who to save and who to send to die in home. therefore, there is still a need to limit infections, isolate outbreaks and vaccinate at breakneck speed. This model had its highest expression in Israel, where in an orderly fashion and with minimal losses they have now achieved the long-awaited herd immunity. In the United States, after months of chaos, vaccines on the carpet are fast. Thanks to the dynamism of American society and the availability of means, the authorities calculate to reach the goal in two or three months, or to protect entire sectors of the population, to restore normality without particular restrictions. In the poor areas of our planet, where certain precautions are not even taken into consideration, the virus has already devastated entire layers of the population, so herd immunity has been achieved in a bloody way, with extermination, as happened with the plague in the past.




The Science magazine article is from early February. Insiders believe that the message, as it reached social media, was irresponsibly misrepresented. Still, there is a grain of truth. In India, thanks to a shortage of means, millions of people were exposed to the infection without particular precautions, and it was a massacre, but many argue that by unleashing the virus, they have almost arrived herd immunity in rural areas.

Epidemiologists are obviously wondering, is it too early to draw conclusions. Indigenous people are always advised to maintain precautions, hygiene and physical distance, but it is true that in those latitudes life has almost returned to normal, with cinemas and theaters reopened, even with 50 percent capacity, religious and religious events and events. , fairs and markets, while since the start of the vaccination campaign, which began on January 16, 17 million and seven hundred thousand people have been immunized in India. On the contrary, in Italy, with this rate of vaccinations, it will take years to protect the entire population.




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