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When will the anti-Covid vaccine arrive? And, above all, how long will it take to reach an immunization level that prevents the coronavirus from spreading with the speed at which we are accustomed?
These are questions that cannot yet be answered. However, the US investment bank Goldman Sachs published late last week your predictions about vaccine distribution.
The report shows substantial optimism from analysts at the forefront of the fight against coronavirus in 2021, but they remain some obstacles that could prolong the pandemic season.
Covid vaccine: when it arrives according to Goldman Sachs
To compile the report, Goldman Sachs experts collated data on the distribution capacity of the main suppliers in the world – such as Pfizer, AstraZeneca and Moderna – with estimates related to demand.
The result, according to the investment bank, is that by the fall of 2021 70% of the population residing in developed countries will be vaccinated and, therefore, immune to the coronavirus. More specifically, Goldman Sachs analysts predict the vaccines will be administered to half of the citizens in the United States and Canada in April.
Moving to Europe, the report highlights the possibility of a quick vaccination in the UK, and about half of the British population is expected to be immune to the virus in March. More cautious analysts on the rest of the continent who, like Japan and Australia, are not expected to reach this level of immunization before May.
The heart of the Goldman Sachs study is inevitably based on a distribution of vaccines available in the coming weeks. The investment bank is betting that the Food and Drug Administration – US body that regulates pharmaceutical products – approve Pfizer and Moderna vaccines in mid-December.
Obstacles to the arrival of the Covid vaccine
On the other hand, in a report infused with a strong sense of confidence and optimism about the prospects for the fight against the virus, Goldman Sachs continues to report what they are. the main unknowns on the pandemic front.
These include the effectiveness of vaccines., with the University of Oxford and the WHO asking AstraZeneca to provide further information on the clinical trial of their product. A negative evolution would have strong repercussions especially on vaccines in the European Union, given that the old continent depends to a great extent on the vaccine from the British company.
Worry too stability of demand of anti-Covid products in the medium term, with the US and Japan that, according to Goldman Sachs, could suffer the growing reluctance of citizens after the first rounds of vaccinations.
Instead, good news for Australia and Canada. According to US analysts, in fact, the two countries are immune to the main threats of 2021. Both have signed several contracts for the supply of vaccines, thus protecting themselves from the risk of failure of one of the products on the market. Also reassuring are the figures on the demand front, which Goldman Sachs says should remain stable throughout the year.
