Covid: uphill curve, but still can be stopped

10/17/2020 Health, Italy



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It is an uphill curve, that of Covid-19 cases in Italy, but for the first time in many days i 10,010 cases from October 16 show that there has not been the duplication that began to be seen since last Monday: “Although every day of the week so far has shown a double increase in cases Compared to the previous week, on Friday October 16 this did not happen ”, said the president of the Accademia dei Lincei. Giorgio Parisi, speaking in a personal capacity.

Also for the body Enzo Marinari, from the Sapienza University of Rome, the curve points decisively upwards and where is the peak It is not known why everything will depend on the security measures that are taken. On Friday, October 9, the cases had been 5,372 and, in case of doubling, on Friday the 16 they should have been 10,744.

“This did not happen and – noted Parisi – could also be a statistical fluctuation, to be evaluated on a week scale“. Just the trend ofepidemic In the coming days you will be able to tell if the curve will continue to rise rapidly or if it will change its trend. It cannot be excluded that the slight improvement, if confirmed, is an effect of a greater resource to containment measures.

«On the other hand, observed the physicist, it was seen that also in other countries there was an exponential increase that became less abrupt. Nobody, however, has a crystal ball. On the other hand, Parisi continued, we can say that “we have entered a situation of constant exponential increase.” If the doubling time had also been confirmed on October 16, extrapolating on November 13 we could have had 100,000 cases in one day. It’s a situation anyway different from last Marchwhen the cases increased ten times in a week.

Instead, there is a question mark over reasons for the increase in cases in October: “It is not clear why it happened – he said – and the possible reasons are many”: from the end of the hot period to crowded public transport, to the not very widespread use of masks. To find out more, said the expert, “detailed information would be needed at the epidemiological level, but it is not known if they exist.”

You must also know the number of rapid antigen tests, which will be added to that of the pads. Regarding schools, data from the Ministry of Health and the Istituto Superiore di Sanità (Iss) indicate “that contagion at school it’s minimal and consequently closing the teaching seems out of place. ‘

For Parisi it would be more reasonable organize exclusive buses for students and amazing school hours. Marinari’s position is similar, so that “even today, a not enormous effort could help us to return to a security regime.”