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Florence, November 2, 2020 – A detailed analysis of the epidemic of COVID-19 in Tuscany was posted this morning byArs (Regional Health Agency), a curated by Francesco Profili, Simone Bartolacci, Marco Santini and Fabio Voller.
“In the general figures, we read, we are looking at Tuscany a trend similar to the Italian. Although in the months of March and April our region had remained at levels of spread of the virus (and impact on hospitals) below the national average, driven by the northern regions at that time, in this new stage we have levels of contagion . above the national averageNational trend that in the last four weeks “has experienced a clear acceleration”.
“Tuscany – reads the report – is currently among the regions with higher weekly incidence of the national average (370.6 vs 269.7 per 100 thousand inhabitants) and is among those with the highest percentage variation compared to the previous week. In our region, in fact, the cases at the moment tend to double from one week to another (+ 100.8% in the last one compared to the previous one), reaching the percentage of positives among the people evaluated 21.7% in the last week “. We have explained several times how the absolute number of positives is a figure that must be read with great caution, because it depends on many factors, firstly on the number of swabs performed but also on the strategy chosen to test: it is clear that if they are performed tests on the RSA, the more likely you are to find positive results. One reading comes from the Ars. possible that the percentage of positives among tested people increases not only due to the greater diffusion of virus, but also because of the difficulty of rubbing all the possible positive positive contacts. It is possible that at this stage prevention departments tend to test more symptomatic suspects, with a higher risk of testing positive. In this way, however, there is a risk of ‘losing track’ of the virus in the population, increasing the probability that untested asymptomatic positives will spread the virus. “
The trend of hospitalizations
According to Ars’s analysis, I Beds occupied by Covid-19 patients in Tuscany “are preparing to reach the peak observed in early April. As of October 30, 1,160 people were hospitalized, of which 153 in intensive care. April (297 of which in intensive care intensive) “.
In the graph the most hospitalized than in the previous week in Tuscany: intensive care in yellow
However, there is an important difference to note: “With the current rate of growth, it is likely that in less than a week occupied beds return to the peak of early April, but with a difference: compared to then is less intensive care use between patients. Currently, those hospitalized in intensive care are 13% of the total number of patients, while they were approximately double (20%) in March and April. The greater precocity in the interception of cases and, therefore, eventually in hospital admission, and some advances in therapies seem to explain this lower clinical severity of patients who arrive at the hospital, but also explain the need for the predominant use of more ordinary hospitalizations. than intensive care. “
In the week of October 24 to 30, the number of hospitalized patients increased by 504 units, of which +71 in intensive care. The previous week the increase was 297 units compared to the previous one.
Geographic extension: the most affected areas
The report still says that 90% of Tuscan municipalities had at least one positive case in the last week. The wave of the virus, however, does not affect the entire region equally, but follows an evident north-south trend, as happened in the first wave.
The image above was prepared by the Regional Health Agency with this method: “To try to highlight the areas of greatest risk we have devised a risk index of 4 levels that combines the weekly incidence (above or below 200 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants) with the% variation of cases compared to the previous week (increase greater or less than 50%) “.
The north-central part of Tuscany, from west to east, it is at risk level 2 or 3. On the other hand, southern areas are more protected, characterized by low diffusion even in March-April. The explanations? “The lower population density and the smaller presence of metropolitan areas, large industrial or manufacturing centers, can help explain these differences.”
Average age
In recent weeks the average age of positives has risen, “from the beginning of September to today – the report reads – it has gone from 40.6 years to the current 44.7 years, but it is still quite low when compared to the that characterized the first wave (56 years). Among those infected, those over 60 years old have increased, while cases under 20 tend to decrease, the age group that had characterized the infection in the summer period. In recent weeks, the appearance of some RSA outbreaks may have contributed to the increase of more than 60 among new cases and the decrease in the relative proportion represented by the youngest. The increase in total cases, especially in the elderly, has caused hospitalizations to resume to increase steadily. It is now known, in fact, that the risk of developing more serious symptoms, up to the need for hospitalization, is associated with old age ”.
Short-term expectations
These are Ars’s short-term expectations: “At least they will need three weeks to see the effects of the measures contained in the dpcm of October 24. If meanwhile the growth rates of infections, hospitalizations and deaths remain in line with those observed in recent weeks, in our region we expect to reach the hospitalization levels reached at the peak of the first wave from March-April in approximately one week . , although with more contained intensive care figures. Consequently, we also expect a further increase in deaths. Therefore, it is essential to foresee a strengthening of hospitals and of health, nursing and socio-health personnel, as has been highlighted in recent weeks, with special reference to intermediate care centers to decongest the wards of hospitals from situations milder clinics. As has been said many times, maximum attention is needed to the places with the highest risk of contagion and health consequences (the same hospitals and nursing homes) ”.
Tracking and public transport
It also serves “to further strengthen the tracking system of cases and contacts, to try to limit as much as possible the possibility that positive people, presumably asymptomatic, without knowing it, feed the infections. The strengthening planned and announced by the Tuscany Region with another 500 operators dedicated to tracking goes in this direction. The Tuscany region has also taken steps to limit overcrowding in means of transport, serious suspect of the greater spread of the infection, especially from mid-September, coinciding with the reopening of schools and the return to the workplace. Finding private vehicles to make them available to public transport could help reduce the risk in the population ”.
Finally, the recommendation on the use of mask It’s in spacing (“Obviously, it is still essential that everyone always wears it and keep a distance that prevents contagion, even if they are unknowingly in the presence of positive asymptomatic people”) and also about the need to contact “the own doctor general medicine or pediatrician of free choice when a symptomatology compatible with Covid19 should arise: the need to don’t fill emergency rooms Without a clinical filter, it can help the hospital response in the days, not easy, that we have to face ”.
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