Covid, the government’s secret plan and the 3 scenarios described already in February

While writing the Corriere della Sera, the objective stated in the document “is to guarantee adequate management of the infection in the local and hospital setting without compromising the continuity of care, streamline access to care, to ensure optimal use of resources. Providing adequate care will reduce morbidity and mortality by mitigating the effects of the pandemic. “

The three scenarios The director of health planning at the Ministry of Health, Andrea Urbani, had spoken about the existence of the document in an interview with the newspaper in which she explained that in order not to “scare the population” with overly dramatic projections, it was preferred to keep it secret. In the act three levels of risk are elaborated. Risk 1, sustained but sporadic transmission and local spread of the infection. Risk 2: widespread and sustained local transmission with increased pressure on the NHS, which responds by activating pre-established extraordinary measures. Risk 3: widespread and sustained local transmission with greater pressure on the NHS that responds by activating extraordinary measures that also involve non-health organizations and structures ”. The last two scenarios – with a contagion index of 1.15 and 1.25 respectively – are the ones that project the largest gap in intensive care places. According to the file, “timely and radical containment measures are effective in reducing R0 below the threshold and keeping the epidemic under control.” In bold it is written “from the confirmation of the first case of local transmission it is essential to quickly activate the containment measures”.

Dpi, intensive care and Regions In the text, the experts speak of the need to increase the stocks of Dpi, since “the procedures applied in intensive structures are highly invasive”. But also increasing the number of beds in intensive care “with a 50% reduction in elective surgical activity, progressively freeing up to 1,597 places, of which 103 in isolation.” The analysis shows that “the national endowment of beds is equivalent to 5,324 beds with an occupancy rate of 85%”. Finally, the Regions. At the most political moment, on February 22, the government invited local authorities to stick to the central line: “In a state of national emergency, the Regions and Autonomous Provinces must overcome the current norms, principles and programmatic differences derived from of adoption of very different organizational models, especially for emergency activities “, it is written. In the fact that” a National Coordination is activated that operates according to a well-defined central decision model and a strong and directive mandate that, respecting the organizations individual regions, defines the efficiency of the interventions to be implemented but above all the effectiveness of the planned actions “.