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In the last 24 hours 853 people lost their lives due to Covid-19. This is the third highest figure since the beginning of the epidemic: only on March 27 and 28 the number of victims was higher (921 and 891). Numbers that sweep away the hopes and sometimes the certainties of those who explained that the second wave would not be as bloody as the first. The deaths are “a fact that hurts us,” the president of the Higher Health Council explained at a press conference. Franco Locatelli. “A week ago we already had very high data on the number of cases and today we have a hundred more deaths and this is a dramatic figure, despite the clear reduction in transmissibility.” Locatelli then highlighted that “for cases there is a cushioning ratio – cases of 12% percent” and that also “the indicator of income in the medical area and in intensive care is lower than in previous days.”
In recent days, the positive cushion ratio stood at around 15%, today it has fallen almost three points.
- November 24 12.3%
- November 23 15.3%
- November 22 15%
- November 21 14.6%
- November 20 15.6%
- November 19 14.4%
- November 18 14.8%
- November 17 15.4%
- November 16 17.9%
- November 15 17.4%
- November 14 16.3%
- November 13 16%
- November 12 16.2%
- November 11 14.6%
- November 10 16.1%
- November 9, 17.1%
Taking into account the contagion curve, if we compare the new cases registered on Monday and Tuesday with those of the previous weeks, the slowdown begins to be evident.
Cases between Monday and Tuesday
- This week: 46,162
- A week ago: 59,545
- Two weeks ago: 60,369
- Three weeks ago: 50,497
- Four weeks ago: 39,006
Cases between Monday and Tuesday
– this week: 46,162
– Last week: 59,545
– two weeks ago: 60,369
– three weeks ago: 50,497
– four weeks ago: 39,006Change from the average of the last four weeks
– almost: -12%
– buffers: + 1%– Lorenzo Ruffino (@Ruffino_Lorenzo) November 24, 2020
The number of swabs analyzed today is not that high: 188,659, about 20,000 less than last Tuesday.
The decrease in hospitalizations: it is the first time since the start of the second wave
Another indicator, that of hospitalizations, also suggests that the epidemic may be in a regression phase. Today there are only 6 more patients in intensive care (yesterday there were 9, two days ago 43 but at the beginning of November they were constantly above 100).
But perhaps there is an even more important fact: for the first time since the beginning of the second wave the number of hospitalized patients with symptoms decreases which falls to 34577 from 34697 yesterday (-120).
Locatelli: “Many indicators are going in the desired direction”
“Today’s data confirm a clear reduction in new cases” and other indicators “are going in the desired direction,” said the head of CSS Locatelli at a press conference.
“The number of accesses to intensive care is 6 compared to 120 a week ago, the number of hospitalizations in medical areas is 120 compared to 538” a week ago. This explained Locatelli, “serves to generate more motivation and incentive to follow the entire strategy that has been developed.” On the other hand, it is still “very painful to comment on the number of deaths, since” it will tend to decrease later “than those who photograph the broadcast” and unfortunately it testifies to how we will continue for a few days to pay a price linked to the period in which Sars-Cov-2 circulated in a much more massive way in the country ”.
Regarding the reopening, the president of the CSS asked for caution. “The current figures do not support a hypothesis of reopening the lifts.” “Otherwise it would expose the country to a resumption of infections. On this front we need a consultation at European level, which is essential to prevent what cannot be practiced in Italy from being done in other countries ”. Locatelli explained, “Even the latest analyzes confirm that they contribute absolutely marginally to the SarsCov2 transmission curve. The potential to infect people over 10 years of age is the same as in adults, while those under 10 years of age are less but not absent. “
For herd immunity, 42 million Italians will need to be vaccinated
The issue of vaccines was also addressed at the press conference. For the president of the CSS it is “absolutely false” that Italy is late, on the contrary “they are working intensively on how to develop the vaccination plan against the virus in the shortest possible time.” Gianni RezzaThe director general of Prevention of the Ministry of Health explained that regarding the anti-Covid vaccine we must look at the contagion index that determines the number of people infected by a positive case: “The higher R0, the more it will be necessary to extend the vaccination campaign and essentially to reach a cut of at least 70%, or 42 million people in our country ”. Basically, about 7 out of 10 people will need to get vaccinated to get herd immunity.
Rezza also discussed the containment measures to be taken in view of the holidays. “I cannot deny my concern, certainly the unlimited Christmas movements and aggregations represent a risk for the spread of the infection. It is a pain every time to talk about Christmas in the situation that we are living – he added – with the hypothesis of physical distancing. and the rarefied relationships. However, if there is a family, even a small one, in which the family members are distant and want to get together for the Christmas holidays, we cannot exclude that the virus travels with them, contributing to its spread. the art of mediation and we will be able to identify the appropriate measures, we must make clear the importance of scientific data: unlimited movements between Regions and aggregations represent the multiplier of contagion ”.
Rt index below 1
That the epidemic is in a waning phase is also shown in the charts of “Predicting is better than cure,” an authoritative data and analysis page on the coronavirus. Today’s figures confirm both the “drop in daily cases” and an “obvious slowdown in IT (intensive care, ed) and hospitalizations. Now we are close to the peak for these curves as well.”
(Infographic: Predicting is better than cure)
Good news also from the Rt index, which as of November 23 was estimated to be below 1, to be precise 0.987 (the elaboration is by Professors Davide Tosi, Alice Schiavone and Alessandro Riva). An Rt index below 1 means that the epidemic is receding. “We know that Rt is not the only parameter to consider in an epidemic (…) but it is one more piece that is added to confirm that we have reached the peak of daily cases and that we have begun the decline that will slowly lead us to plateau curve of total infections of this second wave. Many regions (11 to be precise) follow the Italian trend of Rt <1, including the Lombardy region "(here the details).
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