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A photograph and a film. Indeed, a photograph that stops in time a scene from two weeks ago. And a film capable of showing what will happen in the next few days. It is precisely this difference that explains not all, but most of the contradictions between the two maps that we all have in front of us: that of the number of positives region by region and that of the map. emergency shutdown low intensity, with the red, orange and yellow areas dividing Italy.
The contradictions
Why did Calabria end up locked up if it has “only” 4,244 positives and 11 people in intensive care? Why is Campania on the other hand yellow if almost 4 thousand positives are only yesterday’s, while those hospitalized in intensive care are 174? And again, why for Lombardy there have never been doubts about the red but yesterday the resuscitation hospitalizations, already above 500, increased by 15 units? Of course, each number must be weighed against the population of the region we are talking about. And the data the government uses is old because it dates back to the period of October 19-25. But the main reason is still the difference between photography and film.
And 21 parameters
21 indicators are used to assess the level of risk. Some are understandable to everyone, such as the number of symptomatic cases or the percentage of occupation of intensive care places. Five are optional, such as distribute Check list in the rsa. And this already makes the whole operation less homogeneous. Others are more refined, such as cases of infection not associated with known chains of transmission. But the most important thing is still the RT, which indicates the speed of transmission of the infection. To understand, let’s go back to Calabria. The data used by the government to put it in the red zone says that the RT was at 1.66. “A very high value, even if at first glance the situation seems to be under control”, explains Giovanni Rezza, director of prevention at the Ministry of Health. On October 20 throughout Calabria the total number of positives was only a thousand. But even then the virus was running fast, so fast that only yesterday there were 358 new cases – the movie had provided today’s photo.
Incomplete data
The data is transmitted by the Regions to Civil Protection. They are then evaluated by the control room where the health ministers of regional affairs are located, and then representatives of the Regions, Provinces and Municipalities. The problem is that there are too many gaps in those tables. Even if the president of the Higher Institute of Health, Silvio Brusaferro, says “exclude any hypothesis of malice to build more favorable scenarios.”
There is a completeness problem, that is, the lack of some elements, which affects five regions: Abruzzo, Basilicata, Liguria, Veneto and Valle d’Aosta. And then a transmission stability problem, that is, some rumors stumble in. And here is the Aosta Valley again, which for this double pain ended up in the red zone, and then Campania, Sicilia, Marche and Friuli-Venezia Giulia. The “delay in notification from Campania” could lead to an increase in cases in the coming days. But perhaps, by avoiding the red zone, the government has taken into account the additional measures decided by the Region, starting with the closure of schools. While for Liguria a partial underestimation of the RT is suspected, which, however, Governor Giovanni Toti rejects: “We asked for a comparison before the decision, we could discuss it there.” And then there are more subtle gray areas, as in the case of the number of patients hospitalized in Cosenza: data transmitted 14, data published 2.
Color changes
Many complained that the 21 parameters were not explained. They were established by decree of the Ministry of Health on April 30. But in the Official Gazette of the time there are only a few lines, “the criteria relating to follow-up activities have been adopted …”. To find them, you have to patiently search the website of the Ministry of Health. And here are also the algorithms for risk assessment, which is not once and for all. Monitoring is weekly, new data should arrive today. Unfortunately, it is easier to slip into emergency shutdown you don’t get out of it. «If in a region the RT drops from 2 to 1.8 – explains Rezza with an example – it is true that things are going better. But the virus continues to run fast and therefore we must be cautious. ‘ If, on the contrary, the RT goes from 1.3 to 1.6, we are at lower levels, but the precautionary principle suggests a closure as soon as possible. Even if the control room evaluates. But the government decides.
November 6, 2020 (change November 6, 2020 | 07:18)
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