Covid scenario 4 in Italy is closer: what it is- Corriere.it

When the Higher Institute of Health, a couple of weeks ago, developed its toolbox to identify possible scenarios, we found ourselves in a completely acceptable situation: scenario 2, that is, a situation of sustained and generalized but manageable epidemic . , characterized by Rt (the contagion rate) between 1 and 1.25. Now, in contrast, Italy, according to the Covid-19 prevention and response study, the evolution of the strategy and planning in the transition phase for the autumn-winter period, is terribly close to scenario 4. OR?

This is the worst scenario, among those indicated by the Higher Institute of Health: the one in which the RT exceeds the value of 1.5, where the situation gets out of control and major problems arise in the stability of the system in the short term, within a month and a half . We recall that in March / April in Lombardy the virus reproduced with a value greater than 2, almost 3.