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If Europe returned in March a few days ago, theItaly Since yesterday it has taken a great leap until May 1 and its almost two thousand new patients registered in one day. In fact, the number of infections registered in the Peninsula in the last 24 hours has touched 1,907 new cases (of 99,839 swabs) and, for the first time in some time, we are thinking again about the hypothesis of red zones, limited confinements or other forms restriction. . Not only that, in addition to local measures, in the event that the situation worsens, the executive does not exclude the possibility of meeting other people, perhaps setting a limit of 10 as is already the case in France or 6 as is the case in France. UK.
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Leading this reflection -which continues to be so for now- is the sharp rise in the curve that the Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS), in the weekly monitoring issued together with the Ministry of Health, has identified as evidence of a “slow and progressive worsening of the SARS-Cov-2 epidemic ‘.
Furthermore, in the bulletin, which notes that the RT is now just above 1, we read how it confirms the presence of “important red flags linked to an increase in local transmission.” Translated: there are new shoots and they will continue to exist but everything is under control. For now, the data confirm the advisability of maintaining the prevention and control measures already adopted and being prepared to activate new interventions in the event of further deterioration ”. Translated: for now everything remains as it is but at the first signal we will be ready.
To underline that immediate action is not expected, there are also sources within Palazzo Chigi: “We have a monitoring system that allows us to keep the situation under control and intervene promptly when necessary.” In practice, if the hands of the contagion clock continue to move counterclockwise leading Italy to the April or March numbers and if any area of the country should be considered in danger, the option to emergency shutdown The local would end up on the table. However, as executive sources wish to specify in more detail, in no case would these be measures taken at the national level, but rather actions on individual outbreaks.
However, it is precisely these that concern the ISS experts. In fact, there are 2397 active outbreaks in the country, of which 698 are new. Intergenerational chains of contagion that most frequently pass from children and grandchildren to parents and grandparents. In fact, in the past 14 days, scientists have observed a ‘significant increase in mean age at diagnosis. This, we read, is probably due to a transmission from the younger population to the most fragile or elderly, especially within the family: this is reflected in a greater commitment of hospital services ”. The whole changed scenario in fact puts its weight on hospitals and in almost all regions more and more beds are used for COVID-19, both in the medical area, with increases of 2 to 4% compared to a month ago, and in intensive care, from 1% to 2%, with values higher than 5% for some areas, but “although they have not yet been identified signs of overload of health services – says the report – the observed trend could be reflected in a greater commitment.
The territories most affected at this time, according to the local Rt index (the national one barely exceeds 1), and therefore those that should be considered under close monitoring by the authorities and, possibly, the first to be able to come across new measures more or less. less rigid, are currently the autonomous province of Trento, whose index is 1.59, and Liguria (1.32). On the other hand, it should be noted that the data for Lazio (0.54), Val d’Aosta (0.61), Piedmont (0.69) and Campania (0.71) are especially positive.
Last updated: 02:19
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