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ROME – The government is studying a new restriction. It will be decided in the next few hours and it seems inevitable, because in Italy the curve grows and according to the calculations of the technicians it will continue to grow for at least one more week. In the next few hours, therefore, the heads of delegation will meet again to study a “reinforced” yellow zone that will be activated on January 7, when all the Regions will return to the yellow zone. When, that is, the effects of the last Dpcm that sets the national closure on holidays and days before holidays from December 24 to January 6 are exhausted.
There are two hypotheses on the table at the moment. First: new RT criteria that allow decreeing regional orange and red zones with even fewer emergency numbers. Second: a new national repression that could lead to the establishment of red zones on weekends throughout the Italian territory. It means closing bars, restaurants, shops, shopping centers, as well as prohibiting non-essential movements. For the other days, however, new restrictions on inter-municipal and inter-regional traffic are expected.
All part of the “light days” of shopping, those of the period from December 6 to 23, which culminated in the exodus from vacations to the South. They are the same days, in fact, that coincide with the cashback that the executive is looking for. . In any case, current projections seem to indicate that a new outbreak is looming and that it will last at least another week. So, hopefully, you could see some effect from the holiday restrictions, at least based on data on movements from December 24 to today. Italians would have moved little over the Christmas period, but it is not yet clear how much family and friend gatherings will weigh.
If you are not sure, Roberto Speranza me Francesco Boccia – supported by the head of delegation of the Democratic Party Dario Franceschini and broad sectors of the Movement – are ready to promote together a new intervention. Without waiting for the current Dpcm, set for January 15, to expire. But proceeding with a bridging ordinance (as regards the RT mechanism) which is then absorbed into a decree. The alternative is to directly anticipate the new Dpcm and release it before January 7. In any case, we will proceed in both ways. The first, as mentioned, aims to correct some limits of the mechanism that brings the Regions into the orange or red zone. In this sense, the case of Veneto is emblematic: for weeks it has been the most worrying territory in Italy, but it remains in the yellow zone due to a crossing of parameters. The idea, then, is to intervene on two criteria: the incidence of positives per one hundred thousand inhabitants and the bar of Rt.
The case
Covid, the alarm of scientists. Rising indices, third wave risk
by Luca Fraioli
The orange and red zones would be activated with lower RT thresholds when the incidence of cases in the population, calculated taking into account the last two weeks, is higher than a certain level, still to be corrected: certainly, however, higher The threshold current “tranquility” set at 50 cases per 100 thousand (which today all the Regions far exceed). But at what level of RT would the closures activate? Today the orange zone starts from 1.25, the red from 1.5: they could become 1 and 1.25 respectively (thus decreasing by 0.25).
If so, based on data from last Wednesday, at least three Regions would immediately end up in the orange zone (Calabria Liguria me Veneto) – and projected to the red in the subsequent follow-up – another three would be in balance because they exceed 1, but not at the lower end of the range (Basilicata, Lombardy me Puglia) and another three would apply restrictions with the data for next week, which is already a little below the threshold of 1 (Emilia romagna, Friuli Venice Giulia, Market). Half of Italy, where bars and restaurants would be closed, inter-municipal movements prohibited.
Then there is the other cartridge available to the executive: the idea of strengthening the national yellow zone. The vacation model will be borrowed by establishing a national red zone for one month (until the first week of February) on holidays and the day before. Therefore, shops closed, restaurants, bars, traffic prohibited except for justified reasons. An effort that would also serve to bring the bad start of the vaccination campaign at full speed, too slow (from Calabria to Lombardy, the percentages are still very low). This will be accompanied by new limits on regional movements for everyone and, perhaps, limitations on the opening hours of some commercial activities throughout the country.
The two tracks, the new Rt and the narrow one on weekends, must move together. The heads of delegation will decide this at a government summit, probably this morning. Certainly, the political crisis does not help the effort to contain the third wave. But time is running out and Covid, as well as hospitals and medical personnel working on the front lines, are not waiting for government controls.
