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For the new sleeves, but also for the tampons. The new cases are 136,493 compared to the 165,879 of the previous week, but compared to a reduction of 121 thousand proven cases (551,068 compared to the previous 672,794) and a substantial stability in the relationship between positives and proven cases (24.8% compared to at 24.7%). The current positive decreased by 5.4% (737,525 vs 779,945), as well as hospitalizations with symptoms (30,081 vs 32,811), intensive care (3,345 vs 3,663) and deaths (4,879 vs 5,055)
“He overestimated the effect of the restrictions” – The signs of a slowdown in contagion “are confirmed again this week,” explains President Nino Cartabellotta, “from the percentage increase in total cases (8.4% versus 11.4% nationwide) to the number of new weekly cases. But the effect is not solely due to the measures introduced. ” The reference is above all in the reduction of tests. If, therefore, Cartabellotta clarifies, it is true that “the restrictions have slowed the contagion”, it is equally true that “the effect of the measures on the increase in new cases is overestimated by the substantial reduction in evidence.” The descent of the curve, therefore, he says, “will be very slow, certainly not comparable to the first wave.
Currently positive, cases and tests – The current positives decline very slowly. From the record of 124,575 cases analyzed on average per day in the week of November 4-11 to December 2-8, the decrease in tests was 36.8% (-45,851 cases per day), the reduction of the total number of tampons it also falls, from an average of 214,187 per day between November 12 and 17 to 179,845 between December 2 and 8 (average daily decrease of 27,907 swabs (-13.4%).
Hospitalization and intensive care – Even in the hospital setting, the situation is still not under control: the pressure on hospitalizations and intensive care has decreased, but the employment threshold for Covid patients is still above 40% in medical departments and 30% in intensive care units in 15 Regions. With these numbers, Cartabellotta explains, “the country presents itself as a patient with a still very serious and unstable ‘clinical picture’ that, once the acute phase (peak of infections and hospitalized patients), begins to show the first signs of improvement thanks to the therapies administered. But the prognosis remains reserved and, to be resolved, it requires a rigorous and prolonged ‘compliance’ of all individual measures, with social distancing and with the restrictions imposed by the government and the Regions “.
Too many positives, follow up impossible – In addition, adds Renata Gili, head of Research in Health Services of the foundation, “with more than 700 thousand positives, it is currently impossible to resume contact tracing. We look forward to long winter months that favor the spread of all respiratory viruses; finally, until mid-January. We will not know if the impact of the flu will be, as expected, more limited than in previous seasons. In this sense, reaching that moment with saturated hospitals could have disastrous consequences for people’s health and lives ”.
Very concrete third wave risk – According to Cartabellotta, there are two other elements that complete the “perfect storm that threatens to unleash the third wave. On the eve of the Christmas holidays, all the Regions begin to turn yellow, a color that should not be read as a green light but rather imposes the compliance with strict regulations to avoid meetings and minimize social contacts between people who do not live together. Finally, the expected and (hopefully) imminent arrival of the vaccine should not be an excuse to lower our guard: in the most optimistic of forecasts, in fact, adequate protection at the population level can only be achieved in the fall of 2021 with a massive participation of people in the vaccination campaign. ”
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