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Starting today, Lombardy returns to the “orange” zone: shops reopen, all secondary school students return to class, you can pass without self-certification in your municipality from 5 to 22. The color change is the result of a improvement in the data that act as a thermometer of the epidemic. But authorities and experts repeat that the partial reopening should not be seen as a free whole. “We have already seen a first wave, we are in the middle of the second, we must avoid the third,” summarizes Giovanni Corrao, professor of medical statistics at the University of Bicocca. Together with his collaborators, he monitors the progress of infections and tries to predict their trends. “The spread of the virus depends directly on the behavior of each one of us. We have to see what changes with this color transition, which I personally would have avoided. If we collectively avoid social contacts as much as possible, we will not face a third wave. But the rapid rotation of the new measures does not give us a sense of something positive.
The mathematical models he developed, “corrected” based on what happens day to day, have so far described reality well.. “Today in Lombardy the so-called plateau (the peak, ed) of hospitalizations in intensive care, not yet of deaths. The infections have started to decrease for a few days. According to Corrao’s graphs, keeping the rules of the “red” zone around Christmas, the situation in the region would have returned to the levels of the end of May-beginning of June. “But with the transition to orange, I think the RT, the contagion index that is now around 1 or even lower, will probably go up again. Assuming it goes back to 1.2, the numbers could grow by the end of December. Only with vaccination will we have weapons to fight the virus. Who should be protected first? “We need to understand which individuals are most at risk – says the professor -. There are objective tools to identify who to start with, name by name and not generically. We have studied a specific algorithm, we have proposed it to the Ministry of Health ».
Even from hospitals comes an invitation to caution, despite improved data. “There is a net reduction in access to emergencies – recognizes Andrea Gori, head of infectious diseases at the Polyclinic -, which allows breathing again with regard to medical services. Although the intensive care situation is still quite critical. A mismatch that is not surprising, because from the first wave it was understood that between the reduction in infections and hospital arrivals and the reduction in intensive care hospitalizations and deaths there is a delay of about ten days. “However, it is clear that the problem is not solved. And if we abandon precautions, the virus restarts. Hospitals, in particular, are struggling with a rapid increase in infections, forcing a sharp reduction in other activities unrelated to the epidemic. “What causes the system to plummet is the sudden spike. That is why I appeal to people’s responsibility ”.
November 29, 2020 | 07:42
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