Covid Lombardia, here are the real figures on hospitalizations and intensive care and what they tell us | Milena Gabanelli Simona Ravizza

Along with tampons and new Covid-19 infections, every day the official bulletins tell usthe trend of admissions and admissions to intensive care, considered the main indicator of the spread of the (damn) virus. What still eludes many who the data that is communicated to us daily are the balance between hospital admissions and discharges: if on such a day 400 patients are hospitalized and another 200 are discharged, in the Civil Protection statistics we read more than 200 hospitalized than the previous day. The same goes for resuscitations.. what the health authorities need to assess the robustness of the hospital system and its response capacity based on the available beds.

Actual hospitalizations are triple, intensive care double

Another thing they are the new royal shelters: How many really, in this period, end up every day in the hospital for the coronavirus? They are data subject to a confidentiality restriction, but useful to understand the degree of aggressiveness of the virus and what awaits us in the future if the containment measures adopted do not slow down its execution. the Messenger Service you can document them for the Lombardy region. But the same goes for all of Italy. This is what they tell us in five points. One. From October 1 to 21, actual admissions are on average three times more than what we read in the official bulletin. Double in intensive care. the reason why those who live the situation at the front see it as critical, first of all the doctors who would gladly do it without having to be heroes again. Due. The latest data photographs an increase in new hospitalizations that is becoming major proportions and well explains why emergency rooms are under siege. On Saturday, October 17, 307 new patients ended up in the Covid hospital in Lombardy (against +109 that appears in the Civil Protection bulletin), on October 18, 326 (against 122 officers), on October 19, 398 (against 71), October 20, 408 (compared to 132) and October 21 (latest data available) 359 (compared to 253). In conclusion, Lombardy in the last 5 days is settling on an average of more than 350 new real daily hospitalizations– means that just over 10% of those who test positive end up in the hospital.Of course, all numbers should be viewed with caution. because today even the sick go to hospitals that could be treated at home (if there was a decent local medicine). Three. New admissions to intensive care on October 17 are 22, then 10, 19, 13 and 27. The relationship between intensive care and the total number of hospitalized patients is 5%: that is, out of every 100 hospitalized patients, five require resuscitation. Four. The number of infected hospitalized doubles every 6 days. the fact that, perhaps more than any other, explains why time cannot be wasted. Five. If the trend continues like this, that is, if the countermeasures adopted so far are weak, Lombardy will reach around three thousand new daily hospitalizations at the beginning of November, difficult to manage by the health system. If so, the estimates point to 153 new admissions in one day in intensive care. The mathematics of the virus is not bad.