Covid Italy, the contagion curve slows down. The Experts: Closures Work

ROME «To look at the curve of the gods with honest eyes contagion it finally seems to be starting to cool down. ‘ So last night the emergency commissioner Domenico Arcuri, has validated in a press conference what more and more experts are supporting in the last hours. “Government measures and the virtuous behavior of the majority of Italians” are working.

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A first smile after weeks of hard fighting, very hard in some territories, which is also confirmed by taking a look at the data. Although yesterday there was still a high number of deaths (636) and infected (37,978), it should be noted not only how for at least 5 days the new hospitalized patients have been decreasing (+811 Wednesday, +429 yesterday) as much as it is doing especially the number of positives with respect to the molecular swabs performed.

If since October 1 the percentage has always increased (from 2.2% of 118,000 buffers to 16.3% of the 183,000 on November 1 to the peak of November 7 with 17.2%), for at least two days The trend started to slow down, reaching 16.2% yesterday and 14.6% on Wednesday. We have reached the so-called plateau, the point where we have not yet descended but are not even ascended. Soon to shout for the narrow escape, but enough to testify that the closures and restrictions applied to date are beginning to take effect.

Cts and Lombardy

“We are cautiously optimistic and therefore intend to stabilize the curve. But it’s good to cross your fingers. When even an extremist of prudence like Agostino Miozzo, coordinator of the Scientific Technical Committee, begins to speak in this way, it can really be said that things are starting to take a different course. “That does not mean that it is done – he specifies – but someone comes to tell us that we must reopen the discos or the ski slopes, but that the closures are the only thing that works.”

In fact, distancing, with masks and disinfectant, “is the only therapy we have,” he adds, then “we can do all the sophistry we want.” The chatter is practically nil, the locks work. A bit as the general director of the Milan Ats Walter Bergamaschi commented yesterday, who announced that “the RT of the city today around 1.25, with the confinement is decreasing day by day and has almost been reduced by half compared to at the peak. ”That compares with 2.35 reached on October 22.

“The closures, from the restaurant to the bar – explains Fabrizio Pregliasco, virologist and member of CTS Lombard – are the only recipe we know of to limit as much as possible the number of people who contract the virus and, therefore, lower the pressure on the whole system of health to regain the possibility of finally using the follow-up again ”. In fact, without proper contact follow-up, everything is “much more difficult.” It is, therefore, about thinking by objectives and, gradually, being able to get back on track assuming only calculated risks. Like those hired in Italian schools that, according to what the president of the ISS, Silvio Brusaferro explained to the government, today can remain open in the defined way. That is, with only high school students in distance education at 100%. According to the expert, in fact, the group at greatest risk is the one who is now at home: young people between 14 and 18 years old.

Gimbe

On the other hand, the Gimbe foundation has arrived to curb the first enthusiasm linked to the slight curve of the curve and to return attention to the absolute numbers. As President Nino Cartabellotta explained to Agorà, in Rai 3, in fact yesterday “we currently exceeded 600,000 positive cases”. That is, patients in home isolation, hospitalized with symptoms or in intensive care. “This is an important fact because, as we know, an epidemic is defined as ‘out of control’ when the positives exceed 1% of the population and yesterday, in addition to having exceeded one million since the beginning of the pandemic, threshold of 1 % of the population currently infected with Sars-Cov-2. ”In practice, beyond the first signs of improvement, it will take more time to get back to the top.

Last update: 00:22


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