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Deserted streets and empty cities may never be seen again, but there is a squeeze around the corner. The forecast is in the reading of the graphs, thanks to that type of science that in finance is called “technical analysis” and that is also being useful to the Ministry of Health, where the plan is already ready to face the second wave. In fact, the data of the epidemic in Italy follow fairly regular curves and the values of October 8 take us back to March 18, 2020. The same number of confirmed cases of Covid – more than 4,000 – and above all a similar acceleration in compared to the same day the previous week, with an increase of 82% on March 18 compared to the 11th and 75% on October 8 compared to the day 1. Unfortunately, the number of cases yesterday ( 4,458) is close to that threshold value of 5,000 infections, considered the maximum manageable with the monitoring system. A value articulated territorially and that in Campania leads to the limit of 900, a ceiling to which we are now close with the 757 cases diagnosed yesterday.
Experience allows for fairly reliable predictions. By March 18, schools had already been closed for two weeks and all of Italy had drawn down the blinds and frozen non-essential activities for nine days. But, as we have learned, the effect of a measure on infections is not immediate because there is a delay of a couple of weeks between the moment it is infected, the day the disease manifests itself, and the day it occurs. diagnosed. And so, after March 18, the spread of the epidemic worsened, reaching the peak of 6,557 cases diagnosed on March 21. A value that could be repeated on October 11 or 12, net of the less accurate readings that occur during the weekend, thus going much further threshold number of 5000 and compel the government to take restrictive measures.
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After March 21 the situation began to improve, but it was the effect of a severe one. emergency shutdown respected by Lombardy to Sicily as at that time certified by a Google report, leaving some television correspondent who came to Naples to document the intolerance of the rules and found the disciplined city deserted (“We are not lucky”, was the unfortunate joke of the chronicler).
This time, however, the lock is not there and the distancing measures, plus the obligation of the mask, do not seem to have the same protective effect. After all, already in many European countries – Great Britain, France, Spain, Holland, Belgium, Poland, Greece – the second wave in everyday cases has surpassed the worst days of last spring. Italy seems to be approaching that moment also because the entire peninsula is involved, while in March the rapid blockade had kept the south safe from contagions. There are already six regions that currently have more sick people than last spring: Puglia was added yesterday to Campania, Lazio, Sicily, Sardinia and Basilicata.
But closing the entire country is currently unthinkable, both because of the risk of economic collapse, both because objectively the situation is not the same: health structures have been strengthened and therapies seem more effective, in addition, protective devices such as masks that were nowhere to be found in March are now widely available. However, the coronavirus continues to run on our legs and therefore we must reinforce the distancing measures. How? The plan drawn up by the government will follow a kind of shrimp path, first stopping the activities that had been liberalized last, a bit as has already happened with the discos that opened in July and closed after mid-August. Meanwhile, shutting down non-essential activities like gyms and limit recreational such as catering and sport. Conventions, conferences, ceremonies and events are also intended to be more rigorous because they have proven to be occasions for social gatherings that are not always marked by sanitary prudence.
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The unknown of schools. In March they were the first to close, throughout the national territory as early as the 5th. The signing of Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte was almost an instinctive reaction: in the face of danger, children and young people stay at home. But that measure, which in the first version lasted ten days, was then extended, as we know, until the end of the school year, giving rise to a sensational mass promotion as even in the times of the “political 6”. A devaluation of the students’ knowledge base that, as a national system, we cannot repeat at all. That is why, on this occasion, schools are considered an indispensable productive service, like factories and the commercial network. Schools will close, as they are already closing, whenever sanitation is needed but with the aim of reopening as soon as possible. However, if the number of infections follows the current trend, also for the school there will be restrictive measures such as the obligation of the mask on the desk during the entire duration of the lessons.
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