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The ISS-Ministry of Health weekly monitoring, relative to the period October 26-November 1 with an update to November 9: “For Regions classified as moderate risk with a high probability of progressing to high risk in the next month, it is recommended to consider anticipate the measures provided for the high risk level “. In the period 15-28 October, the Rt transmissibility index calculated on symptomatic cases is equal to 1.72 and greater than 1 in all the Regions.
The pandemic in Italy is rapidly getting worse. This is highlighted by the weekly monitoring of the ISS-Ministry of Health for the period October 26-November 1 with an update to November 9, according to which most of the national territory is compatible with scenario 3, but the Regions / PA in which the transmission speed is already compatible with scenario 4. Therefore, a “general and very serious situation is confirmed throughout the territory with criticalities now evident in numerous Regions / AP” (UPDATES – SPECIAL – THE SITUATION IN ITALY). In addition, in the period from October 15 to 28, the Rt transmissibility index calculated on symptomatic cases is equal to 1.72. There are average Rt values greater than 1.5 in most regions and greater than 1 in all regions.
“Regions at risk of progression anticipate measures”
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“For Regions / PAs classified as moderate risk with a high probability of progressing to high risk in the next month, given the high transmissibility and high probability of an imminent transition to high risk classification – says the ISS – it is recommended consider rapidly anticipating the measures envisaged for the high-risk level and the corresponding scenario as reported in the document ‘Prevention and response to Covid-19’ “. Furthermore, “the Regions / PAs are invited to carry out a continuous analysis of risks, also at the subregional level, and to consider a timely increase in mitigation measures in the most affected areas according to the level of risk and based on the guidelines collected in the document ‘Prevention and response to Covid-19: evolution of the strategy and planning in the transition phase for the autumn-winter period’ transmitted with the Circular of the Ministry of Health of 12/10/2020 Prot. 32732, in relationship with the Ministry of Health “.
“Lagging data from regions is a risk”
It is also “critical to maintain the high quality of the data reported to the surveillance system, both for its timeliness (delay in the notification of cases) and for its integrity. This week, this caused a delay in the receipt of consolidated data from the Regions. / AP “. This constitutes one more proof of the generalized criticality throughout the territory due to the seriousness of the epidemiological situation ”. This, the ISS explains, can lead to an underestimation of the speed and incidence of transmission.
Lombardy with Rt 2.08, followed by Basilicata and Piedmont
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Covid: the map of the regions in the red, orange and yellow zone
Lombardy with 2.08 is the region with the highest RT according to the report data for the week of October 26 to November 1 (updated to November 7). It is followed by Basilicata with 1.99, Piedmont with 1.97, Molise with 1.88. and autonomous province of Bolzano 1.87. All other regions, including the autonomous province of Trento, have Rt above 1.5, except Sardinia (1.24), Marche (1.29), Lazio (1.36), Sicily (1.4). Liguria is at 1.48.
In detail: (14-day average): Abruzzo 1.54 Basilicata 1.99 Calabria 1.6 Campania 1.57 Emilia Romagna 1.63 Friuli VG 1.6 Lazio 1.36 Liguria 1.48 Lombardy 2.08 Marche 1.29 Molise 1.88 PA Bolzano 1.87 Piedmont 1.97 PA Trento 1.61 Puglia 1.57 Sardinia 1.24 Sicily 1.4 Tuscany 1.53 Umbria 1.53 Valle d’Aosta 1.54 Veneto 1.56
“Strong criticisms and busy hospitals in all Regions”
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Coronavirus, the situation in Italy: graphs and maps
The situation, the report explains, highlights “strong criticalities of local services and the current or imminent achievement of the critical thresholds for occupancy of hospital services in all Regions / PA”. In addition, all Regions / PAs are classified at high risk of an uncontrolled and unmanageable epidemic in the territory or at moderate risk with a high probability of progressing to high risk in the coming weeks and in all of them it is essential to strengthen mitigation measures.
“Avoid contacts outside the family”
“The number of cases not attributable to known transmission chains continues to increase (74,967 this week compared to 49,511 the previous week) – adds the ISS – which exceeds 80% of the new cases reported in some Regions / AP”. It is also necessary to drastically reduce physical interactions between people in order to ease pressure on health services. It is essential that the population avoid all occasions of contact with people outside their home that are not strictly necessary and to stay at home as much as possible.
“Strong increase in cases, incidence 523 per 100 thousand inhabitants”
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This week there is a strong additional increase in cases that brings the cumulative incidence in the last 14 days to 523.74 per 100,000 inhabitants in the period 10/19 / 2020-01 / 11/2020 (compared to 279.72 per 100,000 inhabitants in the period 12 / 10-25 / 10). In the same period, the number of symptomatic cases increased from 54,377 to 129,238 (period 19/10/01/11). The increase in cases is widespread throughout the country.
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