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Therefore, a “global and very serious situation is confirmed throughout the territory with critical issues now apparent“, experts emphasize.” It is essential to strengthen mitigation measures in all Regions “, they add.
Rt above 1.5 in most regions – In the period from October 15 to 28, the Rt transmissibility index calculated on symptomatic cases is equal to 1.72. There are average Rt values above 1.5 in most regions and above 1 in all territorial entities.
Lombardia with Rt 2.08, followed by Basilicata and Piedmont – Analyzing the territorial realities, Lombardy with 2.08 is the Region with the highest RT in the week October 26 – November 1 (updated to November 7). It is followed by Basilicata with 1.99, Piedmont with 1.97, Molise with 1.88. and autonomous province of Bolzano 1.87. All other Regions, including the Autonomous Province of Trento, have Rt above 1.5, except Sardinia (1.24), Marche (1.29), Lazio (1.36), Sicily (1.4). Liguria is at 1.48.
Strong increase in cases: incidence of 523 per one hundred thousand inhabitants – This week there is a strong additional increase in cases that raises the accumulated incidence in the last 14 days to 523.74 per one hundred thousand inhabitants in the period October 19-November 1 (compared to 279.72 per one hundred thousand inhabitants in the period 12-25 October). In the same period, the number of symptomatic cases went from 54,377 to 129,238 (from October 19 to November 1). The increase in cases is widespread throughout the country.
Increase in infections not attributable to known transmission – According to the Higher Institute of Health, the number of cases not attributable to known transmission chains continues to increase (74,967 this week compared to 49,511 the previous week), which exceeds 80% of the new cases reported in some regions.
Delayed and incomplete data for the Regions – It is also “critical to maintain a high quality of the data reported to the surveillance system both due to its timeliness (delay in the notification of cases) and its integrity”. This caused a delay in the receipt of consolidated data from the Regions during the week. This constitutes further proof of the generalized criticality throughout the territory due to the seriousness of the epidemiological situation. “The risk is that of an underestimation of the speed and incidence of transmission.
Regions at risk of progression anticipate measures – The ministerial document still establishes that “for Regions classified as moderate risk with a high probability of progressing to high risk in the next month, given the high transferability and probability of an imminent transition to the high risk classification, it is recommended to consider anticipating quickly the measures planned for the high level of risk and the corresponding scenario ”.
Occupied hospitals in all Regions – Finally, the follow-up highlights “the strong criticism of local services and the current or imminent achievement of critical occupational thresholds for hospital services in all regions.”
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