[ad_1]
On April 4, in total lockdown, in Italy there were 29,010 Covid patients hospitalized in medical wards. It was the maximum number reached. Today there are many more, 32,047. To these are added the 3,422 Covid patients in intensive care, we will soon reach the peak of April 3, which was 4,068. So why did Professor Franco Locatelli, president of the Higher Health Council, say yesterday that we are beginning to see the effect of the first measures? And he added: «If the figures of Friday 13 are compared with those of Friday 6 of November we have about 2,500 infected less. The number of hospitalizations has been reduced by more than half and the number of intensive care hospitalizations has also been reduced by 50 percent.
READ ALSO -> Covid vaccine, two more treatments are on the way: “The real impact in the summer.” From the government 400 million
Yesterday’s data only partially confirmed this trend: 33,979 new positives (with 195,279 swabs), seven days earlier (Sunday, November 8) the figure was 32,616 (but with fewer swabs, 191,144). Yesterday the relationship between positives and tests was high (17.4 percent), but sooner or later it will be necessary to reason about the fact that these data are less and less reliable: all negative quick swabs that regions like Veneto and Lazio are excluding from the calculations by acting abundantly. In general, however, we are facing an obvious change in the curve, in the sense that the daily increase in cases is constant, but what happened in early October when the number of new positive cases doubled from one week to the next. next is not like that anymore. other. It is a stagnation, or the beginning of a plateau as we have learned to call it, but with a problem: even if it does not grow, it is still too high a number and this is also reflected in hospitalizations.
If it is true what Professor Locatelli says when he argues that there is a slowdown in hospitalizations, it is also true that there is an increase, yesterday another 116 places occupied in intensive care were added, 649 in medical departments. . In short: the pressure on hospitals is still strong and alarming the fact that the winter will be very long; in January there could also be the effects of seasonal flu and therefore the system will be tested for many months. At the same time there are some favorable elements with respect to the first wave: the hospitals, even with a thousand empty ones, are prepared and the beds have been increased; the sick are not all concentrated in some provinces, as happened in March and April, but are spread over many more regions (although this may have a drawback, because they run the risk of entering into crisis in the health systems in regions that historically have had a manifest weakness in the hospital supply); There is the possibility of improving home care or in Covid hotels, so as not to have the only solution to hospitalization for that part of patients who present a less serious manifestation of the disease.
Two other pieces of information: as far as it matters, at least in this first phase of the second wave, the peak of infections could arrive in the next ten days, and then begin a gradual decline. Ongoing braking is believed to remain linked to softer closings, while the effects of Dpcm (with some regions in the red band and sacrifices not so different from lockdown) we will see only later. If we look at infections, the weekly moving average was 34,775, 8 percent more than seven days earlier (data calculated by Youtrend). On Sunday, November 8, the increase in the weekly average had been 23 percent, on Sunday, November 1, it was 65 percent, on Sunday, October 25, 88 percent. In short: the braking is there, but the winter will be very long.
© REPRODUCTION RESERVED
[ad_2]
