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by Daniele Bovi
Compared with what would have been the natural trend, the epidemic curve in Umbria has decreased by 30% with the restrictive measures adopted in recent weeks. This is what the regional director of Health, Claudio Darío, says, who on Friday, together with the emergency commissioner Antonio Onnis, held the weekly press conference. “We have not reached the peak – said Darío – and the RT has not worsened for the moment”. Next, Darío explained that there is also a decrease in the curve of ordinary hospitalizations and, although less significantly, also in that of intensive care. Slight slowdown The members of the epidemiological nucleus also participated in the videoconference: “There is a slight slowdown – said Dr. Marco Cristofori about the figures for the period from October 1 to November 9 – in the doubling times of the epidemic and the epidemic curve “.
RSA, ONE OF THREE INFECTED
Slight deceleration Meanwhile, the national control room met on Friday and analyzed the numbers from which the Ministry of Health proceeds to assign the different risk bands: for Umbria at this time there should be no news while Tuscany and Campania become in red areas. . Regarding the scenarios, with the current measures according to the sole director of Digital Umbria, Fortunato Bianconi, the peak of the hospitalization load is expected between the end of November and the beginning of December (for intensive care in mid-December); however, without restrictions, the peak would carry over to January.
DOCTORS AND PEDIATRICS, ROUTE TO ANTIGENIC TESTS
Bulletin As for the numbers of the day, in regards to the bulletin, the new infections are 604 compared to the 783 of the previous day of 5,014 swabs; therefore, the positivity rate remains stable (12% versus 13% in the previous 24 hours). Unfortunately eight other deaths (one in Perugia, Terni, Assisi, Narni, Trevi, San Gemini and Passignano, while another was a resident outside the region), with a total of 234 since the beginning of the emergency (80% of which occurred at the hospital). The number of cured is also growing, 900 more for a total of 7,011 (so far the record had been 300). Regarding hospitalizations, there are four more (427) while those in intensive care units decrease by one unit (68).
The Rt Returning to the press conference, according to the analysis of the epidemiological nucleus of the Region in recent days, the Rt index (which indicates the level of transmission of the infection) has returned below 1, in particular 0.91, then October and early November had reached 1.52. This is the real-time RT calculated on a 14-day moving average. Understand, with the system of “traffic lights” for the Regions of the last Dpcm, an Rt above 1.5, combined with other parameters, means the red zone. Last Monday, the day of the passage from Umbria to the orange zone, the TR taken into consideration by the control room was 1.44 calculated on a 7-day moving average (while the 14-day was 1.54). All this to say that the trend is decreasing, since below 1 the epidemic is back under control, evidently because the restrictions finally take effect.
Deepening During the briefing, the epidemiological team presented in-depth analyzes related to various aspects of the epidemic during which, particularly from August to today, a constant relationship between positives and hospitalizations was recorded. Between October and November, the incidence rate per thousand inhabitants is higher, especially in the areas of Perugino and Trasimeno and in some areas of Valnerina. On the other hand, on the hospitalization front, between October 25 and November 2, people with an average age of 44.4 years ended up in the hospital, with a higher probability for men; the average length of stay is 9.2 days, which decreases with age: from three weeks for people aged 40 to 59 to less than 8 for people over 80, many of whom, unfortunately, do not arrive.
Age groups Even speaking of age groups, the incidence rate per 100,000 inhabitants shows that the one with the highest values is the one between 14 and 18 years old and between 11 and 13 (the lowest is that of children between 0 and 5 years). years). In general, if the 11 to 29 year-olds at the end of October are taken, downward values or, in any case, less marked growth can be seen. The introduction of distance learning is not enough to explain this cooling: «It may have been a factor – Cristofori replied – but it certainly also affected the lower load on the transport system. The truth is that the effectiveness of the measures can be seen after twenty days.
The 10395 (-394) currently positive are distributed as follows by residence: Perugia 2297 (-116), Terni 1451 (-111), Foligno 550 (+32), Fuori Regione 544 (-4), Assisi 511 (- 29), Spoleto 467 (-31), Gubbio 381 (+15), Bastia Umbra 372 (-10), Città di Castello 294 (+5), Corciano 264 (-16), Umbertide 233 (-12), Narni 196 (-6), Gualdo Tadino 181 (+15), Todi 162 (-12), Magione 158 (-7), Marsciano 156 (-22), Orvieto 148 (-22), Spello 103, Castiglione del Lago 103 (- 13), Trevi 84 (-4), Deruta 84 (-11), Bettona 75 (+4), Torgiano 74 (-5), San Gemini 73 (-4), Amelia 72 (+2), Acquasparta 67 (- 5), Cannara 62 (-3), Norcia 60 (-17), Bevagna 59 (+10), Montefalco 59 (+4), Montecastrilli 58 (-1), Valfabbrica 51, Passignano sul Trasimeno 50 (-7), Giano dell ‘Umbria 44, Panicale 43 (-3), Cascia 42 (-14), Città della Pieve 39 (+9), San Giustino 39 (+3), Massa Martana 34 (-1), Gualdo Cattaneo 33 (+ 9), Piegaro 33 (-3), Stroncone 30 (-2), Fossato di Vico 29, Tuoro sul Trasimeno 28 (+4), Caste l Ritaldi 27 (+3), Alvi ano 26, Castel Giorgio 25 (-1), Collazzone 24 (-4), Montone 23, San Venanzo 23 (-3), Citerna 22 (+3), Campello sul Clitunno 22, Sigillo 20 (+1), Allerona 18 (-1), Pietralunga 15, Fratta Todina 15 (-1), Otricoli 15 (-1), Nocera Umbra 14 (+4), Fabro 14, Arrone 13 (+1), Castel Viscardo 13 (-6), Sant ‘Anatolia di Narco 11, Scheggia and Pascelupo 11, Ferentillo 11 (-4), Paciano 10 (+3), Attigliano 10, Calvi dell’Umbria 10, Lugnano in Teverina 8 (-1 ), Sellano 7 (+2), Baschi 7, Monte Castello di Vibio 7, Porano 7, Scheggino 7, Lisciano Niccone 6, Avigliano Umbro 6 (-1), Monte Santa Maria Tiberina 6 (-1), Preci 6 (- 2), Montefranco 5 (-2), Monteleone d’Orvieto 4, Monteleone di Spoleto 4, Parrano 4, Guardea 4 (-1), Valtopina 4 (-2), Ficulle 3, Montegabbione 3, Penna en Teverina 3, Cerreto di Spoleto 3 (-1), Costacciaro 2, Jupiter 2, Montecchio 1, Polino 1, Poggiodomo 0, Vallo di Nera 0.
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