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The hypothesis that lGeneralized Ockdown which should avoid the last Dpcm, now back on the table. And not just because Italian doctors have been invoking it for days. The concern is growing in the government, you watch it epidemiological curve and it reasons on the need for even stricter measures, such as the closure of restaurants on Saturdays and Sundays for lunch and the suspension of some commercial activities, which have obtained exemptions in the red zones. But if some ministers like Roberto Speranza and Dario Franceschini press for further adjustment, the first Giuseppe Conte wants to proceed with caution. We cannot undermine the scientific mechanism of the red, orange and yellow zones – their reasoning in confidential meetings. We have to wait for the effects of the measures. We have given ourselves a scientific method and we cannot question it on the wave of emotion.
Government
The government’s goal arrive at least November 15. Only next Sunday will it be possible to establish the effectiveness of the new mechanism that, to contain Covid-19 infections, divides Italy into risk bands and it imposes company closures limiting the movement of citizens. If in five days the epidemiological curve has not reversed course, the most probable hypothesis will bring all the Regions into the red zone. In this case, it will be essential to review the list of stores that can remain open during the day. To do this it will be necessary a new Dpcm that, if there were a political acceleration, could be discussed with Regions and CTS already next weekend.
Expert analysis
The government receives reports every day that describe the trend of the epidemic based on the relationship between swabs performed and positive, but also take into account the situation in hospitals and especially in intensive care. And this is the aspect that most concerns ministers and prime ministers: even if the virus race slowed between now and 15, the saturation of hospitals is likely to come before the trend reversal. Triggering a dramatic bed shortage, which would impose the creation of new Covid hospitals in record timeeven from the field. Last week’s report, confirmed by analysts fromintelligence which monitors all risk situations in the country, identifies mid-November as the last deadline for the start of the decrease.
The beneficial effects
Saturday, November 7, a key date. Llast Dpcm in force for almost a week, the masks have been mandatory for more than a month. Experts warn: The percentage between swabs and positives is 17.2%, up from 16.1% yesterday, but in line with what is expected of our curves from which weaker growth start (but still growth) on Nov 9. As of November 15, the real decline could occur where the beneficial effects of the last Dpcm occur. Already on November 3 it was highlighted that the new positives will continue to grow until November 6 and 8 up to and including values between 37,000 and 44,100, with a madian value about 41,000, before starting a slow decline. But if this does not happen, the situation could be dramatic. The clear suggestion: to obtain a more effective flattening of the global contagion curve, it is absolutely advisable to implement new measures that can superimpose the first positive effects of the recent ones.
I must try
There is another factor that must be taken into account and that analysts warn about: The percentage calculation made using the total buffersi (diagnoses + confirmatory). If we calculate it using only the diagnostic tests (those for which the “first positive” is obtained) we would have a value of approximately 20% representing a particularly critical threshold absolutely not to be underestimated. Just to verify the data and bulletins transmitted by the Region, the Ministry of Health sent the Nas carabinieri in Campania. A procedure that was decided to adopt in all other cases in obvious criticism. Today President De Luca should accept that his region moves to the orange, if not red, band.
November 10, 2020 (change November 10, 2020 | 07:13 am)
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