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It has been 5 days since the Scientific Technical Committee and the control room of the Ministry of Health decreed the red zone for Campania and Tuscany. The update of the decision comes after 15 days: due to the trend of viral fever in Campania, slightly downwards but with hospitals still congested, it is almost certain that we will have to wait another week before the epidemiological indicators are significantly affected by the social restrictions currently in force. Since November 8, the trend of the main parameters has been slightly downward: the Rt virus diffusivity index went from 1.64 to a range that fluctuates from 1.3 to 1.5.
Regarding the bed occupancy rate, a balance has been reached between new admissions, transfers and graduates-cured, so hospitals are left full with small quotas of free places in intensive care and ordinary hospitalization but at least there are no rows. to the emergency room. To this must be added the share of hospital beds with low intensity of care introduced by the network of accredited nursing homes that have allowed, especially in the provinces of Naples and Caserta, to decongest the first lines, making the overload on the network less heavy sanitary. To this has been added a progressive standardization of early care at home that, in patches, are guaranteeing home care by family doctors, Usca teams and district Covid. Tiny levers actuated all together that allowed the bluff to be lifted from the hyper flow on the front lines but still too shy to mark a roll that only a week or two after reaching the top should mark a real descent. . “It is still premature to make an assessment of the impact of the red zone with respect to the parameters monitored by the ministry – warns Gianni Di Trapani, IRISS-CNR researcher and professor of economic statistics – that in any case being optimistic produces effects but very slowly as expected “. when high figures are reached. The exponential phase has given way to a linear growth that, however, has not yet marked a sharp decline, especially with regard to hospital admissions.
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THE NETWORK STILL IN FAILURE
In short, the overload remains but not as dramatic as 10 days ago. The percentage of new positive swab results is also declining, but infections are still high and the proportion of symptoms is not negligible. Yesterday fewer swabs were performed than the average and 3,334 cases were found against the 3,657 the day before, which is equivalent to 14.2 percent of positive swabs compared to 15.6 percent on Wednesday, counting 32 deaths, a little less than the average of 38 registered in the last week. However, that the fever is going down, it is also evident from the occupancy rate of the intensive care units, that yesterday six more places were free compared to 28 more hospitalizations.. In any case, the daily average of new cases in Campania has decreased slightly for about ten days, but as mentioned, it is still not enough to ease the burden on hospitals. Since Sunday, November 8, when the places occupied in ordinary and intensive hospitalization were 1,817 and 186 respectively, the figure has risen to yesterday with 2,287 ordinary hospitalizations and another 194 in intensive care. In practice, there is a slowdown in the progression in intensive care but not in the usual hospitalizations. The final summary tells us that Campania is still in the red zone.. The bottom line is that we are still in the red zone. Treatment of social distancing has slowed the growth of infections but has not yet flattened the curve enough to let the doctors who work incessantly in the trenches at the front breathe.
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