Covid, government studies tightening: three scenarios for shutdowns

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In the first scenario (yellow), the current one where the RT is just above 1 (today in 13 Regions), with the virus running but it is “manageable” because the hospitals can still defend themselves, one goes from the stop “in a every hour “in bars and gyms in the” local red zones. “In the second (” orange “) with more and more infections (Rt between 1.25 and 1.5) and” risks of resilience “of Health, they are triggered closures between regions or “intra-regional”, possible blocking of productive activities “with particular risk situations and if necessary” red zones with temporary closures “that last 2-3 weeks.

For the school, on the other hand, distance education will be preferred with the obligation to wear a mask on the desk for face-to-face lessons. Finally, the last scenario, the worst (red) with an uncontrolled epidemic (Rt above 1.5) and “criticality in the health system in the short term”: in this case, in addition to the closure of schools and universities , reaching a “generalized blockade with extension and duration to be defined”, the hypothesis would refer to the regions at risk but without excluding the coverage of most or all of Italy.

The government and regions prepare for a resurgence of the epidemic after yesterday there was a new boom in infections: +5372 with 28 deaths. And they do so based on a confidential document prepared by the Scientific Technical Committee that will be the compass in the coming months (in the document there is a crescendo of possible interventions until March 2021) for the most delicate decisions that pass from the current phase of “containment” that focuses on the tracking and isolation of cases up to “mitigation” that includes surgical closures, red zones and more extensive closures if necessary.

Three scenarios (to which a now outdated “green” room with low transmission as in July August is added in the document) that will be on the table in the control room between the Government and the Regions that could meet as early as the weekend in view of the next Dpcm expected on October 15. A decree that could already see the first restrictions: from the squeeze to parties and ceremonies establishing a maximum number of participants, as requested by the CTS, to restrictions on demonstrations in the square and other events based on fairs and congresses. Yesterday Prime Minister Conte was supposed to start talking about it with the heads of delegations, but the summit was skipped because not everyone was present and maybe he will try again today. But it is the Minister for Regional Affairs, Francesco Boccia, who makes people understand the current air: “I don’t want another confinement. If we are in 5 thousand infections and other countries in 15 thousand, it is due to anti-contagion measures and attention to mobility. Then, with the utmost rigor, if necessary we will tighten the screws even more, stopping where necessary: ​​school, work, hospitals. “

The first trench remains the Regions where in the next few days new local red zones such as the one decided by the Lazio Region in Latina are not excluded. But in Campania, Governor Vincenzo De Luca is already threatening a confinement after the 769 cases yesterday: “If we have a thousand infections and two hundred recovered, it is a confinement. If we have an increase of 800 new positives every day, we close everything ». And in Campania alone 150 ventilators for intensive care from Commissioner Arcuri are arriving. In addition, that the situation is now alarming is demonstrated by the constant increase in hospitalizations: yesterday ordinary +161 (4086 in total) and intensive care +29 (387 in total). “We are in a situation of yellow warning light for intensive care,” warns Flavia Petrini, member of the CTS and president of the society of intensive care and intensive care. “If the trend in cases continues at the current rate, and without further measures, we estimate that in less than a month the intensive care units of the Center-South may suffer,” adds Alessandro Vergallo, president of hospital resuscitators.