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Rome, December 10, 2020 – Covid infections are decreasing, but so are tampons. This is what supervision independent of the Foundation
Gimbe: In the week 2-8 December, compared to the previous one, there was a decrease in new cases (136,493 vs 165,879), compared to one reduction of more than 121 thousand proven cases (551,068 vs 672,794) and a substantial stability of the positive / proven case ratio (24.8% vs 24.7%). Currently, positive cases decreased by 5.4% (737,525 versus 779,945) and, in the hospital setting, both hospitalizations with symptoms (30,081 versus 32,811) and intensive care (3,345 versus 3,663) decreased; deaths also decreased slightly (4,879 vs. 5,055).
Coronavirus, the newsletter for December 10
“From these numbers – explains Nino Cartabellotta, president of the Gimbe Foundation – three reasonable certainties emerge: firstly that the measurements introduced have slowed the contagion; second, that the effect of the measures on the increase in new cases is overestimated by a reduced test activity; finally, that, in the absence of restrictive measures, the offspring of the curve it will be very slow, certainly not comparable to the first wave. “From the record of 124,575 proven cases on average on the weekday 4-11 of November, on that 2-8 December there was a decrease of 36.8% (-45,851 cases analyzed / day). Less obvious is the reduction in tamponTotals went from an average of 214,187 / day in the week of November 12 to 18 to 179,845 in the week of December 2 to 8, with an average daily decrease of 27,907 swabs (-13.4%).
Therefore, we are still faced with “a Perfect storm which is likely to cause the third wave“Cartabellotta continues.” On the eve of vacation season – explains – everything Regions start to become yellow, a color that should not be read as a go-ahead, but requires compliance with strict rules to avoid meetings and minimize social contacts between people who do not live together. Finally, the expected and (hopefully) imminent arrival of the vaccine should not be an alibi to lower our guard: in the most optimistic of forecasts, in fact, adequate protection at the population level can only be achieved in the autumn of 2021 participation of people in the vaccination campaign “.
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“With these numbers – Cartabellotta concluded – the country presents itself as a patient with a lot of ‘clinical symptoms’ severe and unstable which, after the acute phase (peak of infections and hospitalized patients), begins to show the first signs of improvement thanks to the therapies administered. But the forecast remains reserved and, to be resolved, requires a rigorous and prolonged ‘compliance’ of all the individual measurements, social distancing and restrictions imposed by the Government and the Regions ”.
We are in “an extremely delicate phase of the epidemic – reiterates Renata gili, Head of Research on Health Services at the Gimbe Foundation, for at least three reasons: first, with more than 700,000 positives currently, it is impossible to resume contact tracking; second, they wait a long time winter months that favor the spread of all respiratory viruses; Finally, until mid-January we will not know if the impact ofinfluenza it will be, as expected, more content than in previous seasons. In this sense, reaching that moment with saturated hospitals could have disastrous consequences for people’s health and lives ”.
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